Sunday, January 16, 2011

USA Monthly Food & Retail Sales at All-Time High! (Charts) *December sales continue upward trend*


U.S. Census Bureau: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services

USA Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services at All-Time High!

Official Statement by U.S. Census Bureau (January 14, 2011) The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $380.9 billion, an increase of 0.6 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, and 7.9 percent (±0.7%) above December 2009. Total sales for the 12 months of 2010 were up 6.6 percent (±0.4%) from 2009. Total sales for the October through December 2010 period were up 7.8 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The October to November 2010 percent change was unrevised from +0.8 percent (±0.2%).
Cycle History USA monthly sales for retail & food services in December of $380.869 billion (advance estimate) are an all-time high, exceeding the November 2007 pre-Great Recession peak of $379.960 billion. The December sales (advance estimate) were up +$45.255 billion and +13.5 % from the Great Recession cyclical bottom of $335.614 billion in December 2008.

Trend USA monthly sales for retail and food services continue a strong uptrend. Sales were up +$2.3 billion and +0.61% from November and increased for the 6th consecutive month. Sales have increased 10 of the 12 months in 2010 and 18 of the past 21 months. The December sales were up a strong +$26.8 billion and +7.6% YoY from December 2009. The December sales continue above the 12-month moving average of $366.7 billion and have remained above since August 2009 (17 consecutive months). Monthly sales have also continued above the 24-month and 36-month moving averages of $355.4B and $359.4B for 12 and 10 months, respectively. The 12-month, 24-month, and 36-month moving averages are uptrending. (The 12-month, 24-month, and 36-month moving averages charts are not shown on this page).

Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services (Chart) Below is a 25 month chart of USA monthly sales for retail and food services from the Great Recession cyclical low in December 2008 of $335.614 billion through the latest month reported, December 2010, which is an all-time high. USA sales peaked in November 2007 at $379.960 billion and began downtrending in July 2008 at an increasing rate. The current December sales (advance estimate) has exceeded the pre-Great Recession peak.

Annual Sales for Retail and Food Services (Chart) Below is a 7 year chart of USA annual sales for retail and food services from 2004 through 2010, including the December 2010 monthly advance estimate. Annual sales peaked in 2007 at $4.454 trillion, dipped in 2008 at $4.409 trillion, and reached a Great Recession cyclical low in 2009 at $4.130 trillion. The 2010 annual sales have bounced upwards from the 2009 cyclical low to $4.400 trillion (advance estimate), which is just below the pre-Great Recession peak in 2007 of $4.454 trillion.

Commentary This is not just encouraging data, but incredible data, that the December sales for retail and food services was $380.869B (advance estimate). This is an all-time monthly high and just above the pre-Great Recession November 2007 peak of $379.960B. Therefore, USA sales are well above the cyclical bottom of $335.614B in December 2008. Annual sales for 2010 were $4.400 trillion (advance estimate), which is higher than 2009 and just below 2008. Since consumer spending, consumption is a significant portion of the USA economy (60%+ of GDP), this upsurge should strengthen USA economic (GDP) growth. Along with other USA, and Global, economic data for December reviewed in previous posts, the recovery has strengthened after the Summer Slump. USA Q4 economic activity and growth (GDP) is looking very strong, compared to previous estimates.

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