Monday, November 15, 2010

USA October Sales for Retail & Food Services at 26-Month High (Chart) *Up +1.2% to $373B*


USA monthly retail and food services sales increased +$4.5 billion in October

USA Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services Up +1.2% in October

Official Statement (November 15, 2010) The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $373.1 billion, an increase of 1.2 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, and 7.3 percent (±0.7%) above October 2009. Total sales for the August through October 2010 period were up 6.3 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The August to September 2010 percent change was revised from +0.6 percent (±0.5%) to +0.7 percent (±0.3%). Retail trade sales were up 1.3 percent (±0.5%) from September 2010, and 7.7 percent (±0.7%) above last year. Auto and other motor vehicle dealers sales were up 14.7 percent (±2.5%) from October 2009 and nonstore retailers sales were up 13.5 percent (±3.1%) from last year.
Cycle History USA monthly sales for retail & food services in October (preliminary) were down -$6.9 billion and -1.8% from the cyclical peak of $379.960 billion in November 2007. The October sales (preliminary) were up +$37.5 billion and +11.2% from the cyclical bottom of $335.614 billion in December 2008. Therefore, current October sales are much closer to the peak than the trough.

Trend USA monthly sales for retail & food services are on a definite uptrend. Sales were up +$4.5 billion and +1.2% from September and increased for the 4th consecutive month.. Sales have increased 8 of the 10 months in 2010 for a net increase of $19.05 billion for the year. The October sales of $373.103 billion continue above the 12-month moving average of $362.096 billion and have remained above since August 2009 (15 consecutive months). Monthly sales have also continued above the 24-month and 36-month moving averages of $352.804B and $359.324B for 10 and 8 months, respectively. Both the 12-month and 24-month moving averages are uptrending and the 36-month moving average is leveling off. (The 12-month, 24-month, and 36-month moving averages charts are not shown on this page).

Chart Below is a 36 month chart of USA sales for retail & food services from November 2007 (the cyclical peak) through the latest month reported, October 2010. USA. Sales peaked in November 2007 at $379.960 billion, began downtrending in July 2008 at an increasing rate. The bottom was in December 2008 at $335.614 billion. The current October sales (preliminary) of $373.13 billion are both the short-term and intermediate-term highs.

Commentary This is very encouraging data that the October sales for retail and food services was $373.103B and is not only a short-term high but an intermediate-term high. Therefore, USA sales are well off the cyclical bottom of $335.614B in December 2008. Since consumer spending, consumption is a significant portion of the USA economy (60%+ of GDP), this upsurge should strengthen USA economic (GDP) growth. Along with other USA, and Global, economic data for October reviewed in previous posts, the recovery has strengthened after the Summer Slump.

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