Tuesday, November 30, 2010

USA & Global Economy: Overall Positive News in November (Review, Charts) *Monthly Economic Review*


USA & Global Economy: Manufacturing and Services Sectors Continue Expanding after Summer Slump

USA & Global Economy: Overall Positive News in November
* Monthly Economic Review *

Although the EU Sovereign Debt Crisis continues, both the USA and Global Economy showed renewed economic recovery after the Summer Slump. Of course, all is not well: the USA financial system continues with problems and weakness, including a foreclosure fiasco and crisis, the USA unemployment remains high, and USA real estate is in a market depression. The aftermath of the Credit Bubble and Great Recession will linger indefinitely. However, the USA GDP is growing faster than projected and the risk of a double dip recession now appears much diminished.

Below are November post headlines from both Boom Doom Economy and Financial Controls summarizing select economic data and news, in reverse chronological order. Further below is the historical and projected USA GDP per the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Also further below is the projected GDPs for the USA, Japan, the Euro Area, and Total OECD per the latest OECD economic outlook. Beginning December 1, 2010, the economic data for November will begin and should indicate continuing economic recovery and expansion. Q4 2010 should be a better than initially projected quarter for the USA and Global Economy. Whether the pace of the economic recovery will continue on to Q1 2011 or will slow is the concern now.

USA Positive Economic Data and News
USA Monthly Consumer Confidence Index at 5-Month High (Chart) "Suggests the economy is still expanding, albeit slowly"
USA Economic Weekly Leading Index at 27-Week High (Charts) *WLI continues uptrend*
USA Weekly Unemployment Claims Lowest Since July 2008! (Charts) *Bonus Chart: The Great Recession*
USA Q3 GDP Revised Upwards to +2.5% (Charts) "Sharp deceleration in imports"
USA Monthly Leading Economic Index Up in October (Chart) "Remains on upward trend, suggesting modest economic expansion"
USA Consumer Sentiment at 5-Month High (Chart) "Spending will continue close to current rate"
USA October Sales for Retail & Food Services at 26-Month High (Chart) *Up +1.2% to $373B*
USA Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI) Up +1.1% in October (Chart) *Continued growth for 10 consecutive months*
USA Manufacturing PMI Increases in October, at 5-Month High (Chart) *Signals continuation of economic recovery*

USA Neutral and/or Negative Economic Data and News
USA Problem Bank List Increases to 860 (Charts) *FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile*
Federal Reserve Lowers USA 2010 & 2011 GDP Projections (Charts) *Higher unemployment rate projections*
USA Industrial Production Index Unchanged in October (Charts) *Manufacturing up, utilities down*
USA Total Consumer Credit Increases in September (Charts) *Revolving credit down 25th consecutive month*
Bank Failure Friday: FDIC Closes 4 Banks *2010 total now 143, exceeds 2009 total of 140*
Federal Reserve: Pace of USA Economic Recovery Continues to Be Slow (Review, Chart) *Will purchase $600B US Treasury securities*
USA Unemployment Rate Continues at 9.6% in October (Charts, Review) *New jobs +151K, first increase since May*
USA Economy: No Double Dip Recession, No Rapid Recovery (Videos) *Lakshman Achuthan of ECRI*
How The Foreclosure Crisis Began (Video) *A small house in Maine, a volunteer attorney*

Global Economic Data and News
IMF World Economic Outlook (Video, Charts) "Recovery proceeding broadly as expected"
OECD: Economic Recovery Underway, Slower Than Expected (Video, Charts) *Challenge is self-sustained growth*
Global All-Industry Output Index at 6-Month High (Chart) *Accelerates in October*
Global Services PMI Up a Strong +2.3% in October (Chart) *First acceleration in 6 months*
Global Manufacturing PMI Up +1.2% (Chart) *First acceleration in 6 months*
Euro Zone Manufacturing Increases in October (Video) *First expansion in 3 months*
China & UK Manufacturing Expands in October (Videos) *Strong start for Q4*

USA GDP by Quarter

USA GDP by Quarter (Chart) The chart below is the annualized percentage change of the GDP (seasonally adjusted at annual rate) from the preceding quarter, the most common GDP measure. As can be seen, there was a negative dip into the Great Recession beginning 2008 Q1, a rebound peaking with the 2009 Q4, a downward trend in 2010 Q1 and Q2. The USA economy appeared to be at a crossroads in Q2: a continuing downwards trend towards zero growth or a bounce upwards from there? The Q3 +2.5% is a positive bounce upwards. The chart covers the last 23 quarters (5+ years) of USA GDP as reported by BEA from 2005 Q1 through 2010 Q3.

The moving 4-quarter average (1 year) is now +3.23%, which is just above a break-even economy on jobs, creating a small net increase in jobs - but is not robust. The 23-quarter average is +1.23% per quarter, which is a stalled economy, a flat economy, that is not producing jobs and has an increasing unemployment rate. However, the current Q3 GDP +2.5% is well above this average.

OECD: GDP Growth Projections by Quarter

OECD: GDP Growth Projections by Quarter (Chart) Below is the OECD GDP Growth Projections by Quarter for the USA, Japan, the Euro Area, and the entire OECD. These are annualized percentage growth rates. The chart is for 10 quarters, from Q3 2010 through Q4 2011. The USA lowest quarter is +1.9% in Q4 2010 (now) and the highest is +3.7% in Q4 2012 (2 years from now). The Japan lowest quarter is +0.6% in Q2 2011 and the highest is +2.7% in Q1 2011 (next quarter). The Euro Area lowest quarter is +1.3% in both Q4 2010 (now) and Q1 2012 (next quarter). The highest quarter is +2.2% in both Q3 2012 and Q4 2012 (2 years from now). The Total OECD lowest quarter is +1.7% in Q4 2010 (now) and the highest is +3.2% in Q4 2012 (2 years from now). No negative GDP quarters are projected nor on the graph.


USA & global economic news & analysis. There is always good/bad economic news, no matter how good/bad times are.

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