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Bureau of Labor Statistics: September Employment Situation Summary
USA Unemployment Continues at 9.6% in September
Official Statement The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported, "Nonfarm payroll employment edged down (-95,000) in September, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.6 percent. Government employment declined (-159,000), reflecting both a drop in the number of temporary jobs for Census 2010 and job losses in local government. Private-sector payroll employment continued to trend up modestly (+64,000)."
Unemployment Rate (Chart) The unemployment rate (U-3) continued at 9.6% in September, no change from August. The rate peaked during the USA Great Recession in October, November, and December 2009 at 10.1%, 10.0%, and 10.0% respectively. The low subsequently has been 9.5% in June and July 2010. The chart below shows the latest 36 months (3 years) of the monthly unemployment rate.
The September decrease in total nonfarm employment of -95,000 is the fourth consecutive month of USA job losses, indicating the economic recovery has slowed considerably and near stalling. As can bee seen from the charts above, the employment situation is not trending significantly better or worse, just muddling along. This indicates the USA GDP growth rate is very low, certainly less than +3% and most likely less than +2%, between +1% and +2%. August and July total nonfarm employment were revised downwards -3,000 and -12,000 to net monthly changes of -57,000 and -66,000. After 5 consecutive months of net employment gains (January through May 2010), there now have been 4 consecutive months of net employment losses (June through September 2010).
Although there has still been a net jobs increase in total nonfarm employment of +723,000 for 2010 YTD, this is not enough to bring down the unemployment and underemployment rates. This also does not even begin to recover the jobs lost in 2008 and 2009 of -3,623,000 and -4,740,000, respectively. Private sector employment has had a net jobs increase of +863,000 in 2010 YTD, which is encouraging. However, when compared to jobs lost in 2008 and 2009 of -3,807,000 and -4,660,000, this is not a significant increase. Government employment has had a net jobs decrease of -250,000 in 2010 YTD compared to a net jobs increase in 2008 of +184,000 and net jobs decrease in 2009 of -80,000.
Weekly unemployment insurance claims have trended downwards recently to a 12-week low, but remain above 400,000 in the mid 400,000s range, also indicating the USA economy is not growing robustly. Weekly unemployment insurance claims are monitored, charted, and reviewed here.
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Unemployment Rate (Chart) The unemployment rate (U-3) continued at 9.6% in September, no change from August. The rate peaked during the USA Great Recession in October, November, and December 2009 at 10.1%, 10.0%, and 10.0% respectively. The low subsequently has been 9.5% in June and July 2010. The chart below shows the latest 36 months (3 years) of the monthly unemployment rate.
Total Nonfarm Employment (Chart) Total nonfarm employment decreased -95,000 (preliminary) in September, the fourth consecutive month of decreases. The total nonfarm employment job losses peaked during the USA Great Recession at -779,000 in January 2009. The best jobs gains subsequently has been +432,000 in May 2010. The chart below shows the latest 36 months (3 years) of monthly changes in total nonfarm employment. Total nonfarm employment is private sector + government sector jobs.
Private Sector Employment (Chart) Private sector employment increased +64,000 (preliminary) in September, the ninth consecutive month of increases. Private sector employment job losses peaked during the USA Great Recession at -806,000 in January 2009. The best jobs gains subsequently has been +241,000 in April 2010. There has still been a net jobs increase of +613,000 for 2010 YTD. This was after a dismal 22 consecutive months of job losses from January 2008 through October 2009 and 23 of 24 months through December 2009. The chart below shows the latest 36 months (3 years) of monthly changes in private sector employment.
Government Employment (Chart) Government employment decreased -159,000 (preliminary) in September, the fourth consecutive month of decreases. Government employment job losses reached at cyclical peak recently at -236,000 in June 2010. The best jobs gain was the previous month +381,000 in May 2010. The BLS has attributed this jobs gain and loss mostly to the 2010 Census. The chart below shows the latest 36 months (3 years) of monthly changes in government employment.
Total Unemployed Total unemployed decreased -93,000 to 14,767,000 in September. The total unemployed peaked during the USA Great Recession in October 2009 at 15,612,000. The low subsequently has been 14,599,000 in July 2010. The chart below shows the latest 36 months (3 years) of the total unemployed.
Underemployment Rate The underemployment rate (U-6) increased +0.4% to 17.1% in September. The rate peaked during the USA Great Recession in October, November, and December 2009 at 17.4%, 17.2%, and 17.3%, respectively. The low subsequently has been 16.5% in January and June 2010. The chart below shows the latest 36 months (3 years) of the monthly unemployment rate.
Commentary
The September decrease in total nonfarm employment of -95,000 is the fourth consecutive month of USA job losses, indicating the economic recovery has slowed considerably and near stalling. As can bee seen from the charts above, the employment situation is not trending significantly better or worse, just muddling along. This indicates the USA GDP growth rate is very low, certainly less than +3% and most likely less than +2%, between +1% and +2%. August and July total nonfarm employment were revised downwards -3,000 and -12,000 to net monthly changes of -57,000 and -66,000. After 5 consecutive months of net employment gains (January through May 2010), there now have been 4 consecutive months of net employment losses (June through September 2010).
Although there has still been a net jobs increase in total nonfarm employment of +723,000 for 2010 YTD, this is not enough to bring down the unemployment and underemployment rates. This also does not even begin to recover the jobs lost in 2008 and 2009 of -3,623,000 and -4,740,000, respectively. Private sector employment has had a net jobs increase of +863,000 in 2010 YTD, which is encouraging. However, when compared to jobs lost in 2008 and 2009 of -3,807,000 and -4,660,000, this is not a significant increase. Government employment has had a net jobs decrease of -250,000 in 2010 YTD compared to a net jobs increase in 2008 of +184,000 and net jobs decrease in 2009 of -80,000.
Weekly unemployment insurance claims have trended downwards recently to a 12-week low, but remain above 400,000 in the mid 400,000s range, also indicating the USA economy is not growing robustly. Weekly unemployment insurance claims are monitored, charted, and reviewed here.
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