Friday, October 8, 2010

USA Unemployment Rate Continues at 9.6% in September (Charts) *95,000 jobs lost*

♦♦♦


Bureau of Labor Statistics: September Employment Situation Summary


USA Unemployment Continues at 9.6% in September

Official Statement The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported, "Nonfarm payroll employment edged down (-95,000) in September, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.6 percent. Government employment declined (-159,000), reflecting both a drop in the number of temporary jobs for Census 2010 and job losses in local government. Private-sector payroll employment continued to trend up modestly (+64,000)."

Unemployment Rate (Chart) The unemployment rate (U-3) continued at 9.6% in September, no change from August. The rate peaked during the USA Great Recession in October, November, and December 2009 at 10.1%, 10.0%, and 10.0% respectively. The low subsequently has been 9.5% in June and July 2010. The chart below shows the latest 36 months (3 years) of the monthly unemployment rate.


Total Nonfarm Employment (Chart) Total nonfarm employment decreased -95,000 (preliminary) in September, the fourth consecutive month of decreases. The total  nonfarm  employment job losses peaked during the USA Great Recession at -779,000 in January 2009. The best jobs gains subsequently has been +432,000 in May 2010. The chart below shows the latest 36 months (3 years) of monthly changes in total nonfarm employment. Total nonfarm employment is private sector + government sector jobs.


Private Sector Employment (Chart) Private sector employment increased +64,000 (preliminary) in September, the ninth consecutive month of increases. Private sector employment job losses peaked during the USA Great Recession at -806,000 in January 2009. The best jobs gains subsequently has been +241,000 in April 2010. There has still been a net jobs increase of +613,000 for 2010 YTD. This was after a dismal 22 consecutive months of job losses from January 2008 through October 2009 and 23 of 24  months through December 2009. The chart below shows the latest 36 months (3 years) of monthly changes in private sector employment.


Government Employment (Chart) Government employment decreased -159,000 (preliminary) in September, the fourth consecutive month of decreases. Government employment job losses reached at cyclical peak recently at -236,000 in June 2010. The best jobs gain was the previous month +381,000 in May 2010. The BLS has attributed this jobs gain and loss mostly to the 2010 Census. The chart below shows the latest 36 months (3 years) of monthly changes in government employment.


Total Unemployed Total unemployed decreased -93,000 to 14,767,000 in September. The total unemployed peaked during the USA Great Recession in October 2009 at 15,612,000. The low subsequently has been 14,599,000 in July 2010. The chart below shows the latest 36 months (3 years) of the total unemployed.


Underemployment Rate The underemployment rate (U-6) increased +0.4% to 17.1% in September. The rate peaked during the USA Great Recession in October, November, and December 2009 at 17.4%, 17.2%, and 17.3%, respectively. The low subsequently has been 16.5% in January and June 2010. The chart below shows the latest 36 months (3 years) of the monthly unemployment rate.



Commentary

The September decrease in total nonfarm employment of -95,000 is the fourth consecutive month of USA job losses, indicating the economic recovery has slowed considerably and near stalling. As can bee seen from the charts above, the employment situation is not trending significantly better or worse, just muddling along. This indicates the USA GDP growth rate is very low, certainly less than +3% and most likely less than +2%, between +1% and +2%. August and July total nonfarm employment were revised downwards -3,000 and -12,000 to net monthly changes of -57,000 and -66,000. After 5 consecutive months of net employment gains (January through May 2010), there now have been 4 consecutive months of net employment losses (June through September 2010).

Although there has still been a net jobs increase in total nonfarm employment of +723,000 for 2010 YTD, this is not enough to bring down the unemployment and underemployment rates. This also does not even begin to recover the jobs lost  in 2008 and 2009 of -3,623,000 and -4,740,000, respectively. Private sector employment has had a net jobs increase of +863,000 in 2010 YTD, which is encouraging. However, when compared to jobs lost  in 2008 and 2009 of -3,807,000 and -4,660,000, this is not a significant increase. Government employment has had a net jobs decrease of -250,000 in 2010 YTD compared to a net jobs increase in 2008 of +184,000 and net jobs decrease in 2009 of -80,000.

Weekly unemployment insurance claims have trended downwards recently to a 12-week low, but remain above 400,000 in the mid 400,000s range, also indicating the USA economy is not growing robustly. Weekly unemployment insurance claims are monitored, charted, and reviewed here.


Related Articles and Links
Recent Posts by Financial Controls
Bank Failure Friday: FDIC Closes 2 Banks *2010 YTD Total Now 129*
Federal Reserve: Pace of Economic Recovery Likely to be Modest in Near Term (Review)
Fed Beige Book: USA Economic Growth at Modest Pace (Review)
Fed Chair Bernanke: Pace of Economic Recovery Has Slowed Somewhat (Review)
Fed Chair Bernanke: Moderate Recovery, Outlook "Unusually Uncertain" (Review)
Recent Posts by Boom Doom Economy
USA Weekly Unemployment Claims at 12-Week Low (Charts) *Total Claims 445,000*
Global Manufacturing PMI at 14-Month Low (Chart) "Production is likely to stop growing or even contract" USA Manufacturing PMI Contracts in September -1.9% (Chart) *10 month low, growing at slower rate* USA Weekly Leading Index at 2 Week High (Charts) "Suggests recovery will remain sluggish"
USA Q2 GDP Revised Slightly Upwards to +1.7% (Chart)
USA Monthly Consumer Confidence Index at 7 Month Low (Chart)
USA Monthly Leading Economic Index at New High in August (Chart)
Global All-Industry Output Index Dips to 6 Month Low (Chart)
Global Services PMI at 6 Month Low (Chart) *Growing at Slower Rate in August*
USA Consumer Sentiment Drops to 13 Month Low (Chart)
USA Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services Up +0.4% in August (Chart)
USA Total Consumer Credit Decreases in July (Charts)
USA Unemployment Rate Edges Up To 9.6% In August (Charts)
Recent Posts by Matrix Markets
S&P 500 in Narrow Trading Range (Charts) *Waiting for Earnings Season*
Other Links
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)


More Charts!

For Apple Financial Performance charts, go to Apple Digest

For Google Financial Performance charts, go to Google Investor

For Microsoft Financial Performance charts, go to Osprey Flyer

Follow Boom Doom Economy on Twitter!


♦♦♦

Seeking Alpha