Wednesday, October 20, 2010

USA September Sales for Retail & Food Services at 25-Month High (Chart) *Up +0.62% to $367.67B*

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USA monthly retail and food services sales increased +$2.627 billion in September


USA Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services Up +0.62% in September

Official Statement (October 15, 2010) The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $367.7 billion, an increase of 0.6 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, and 7.3 percent (±0.7%) above September 2009. Total sales for the July through September 2010 period were up 5.7 percent (±0.3%) from the same period a year ago. The July to August 2010 percent change was revised from +0.4 percent (±0.5%)* to +0.7 percent (±0.3%). Retail trade sales were up 0.7 percent (±0.5%) from August 2010, and 7.7 percent (±0.7%) above last year. Auto and other motor vehicle dealers sales were up 19.0 percent (±2.6%) from September 2009 and nonstore retailers sales were up 14.4 percent (±3.1%) from last year.
 
Cycle History USA monthly sales for retail & food services in September were down -$12.29 billion and -3.23% from the peak of $379.960 billion in November 2007. The September sales were up +$32.056 billion and +9.55% from the bottom of $335.614 billion in December 2008.

Trend USA monthly sales for retail & food services were up +$2.267 billion and +0.62% from August and increased for the 3rd consecutive month.. Sales have increased 7 of the 9 months in 2010 for a net increase of $13.572 billion for the year. The September sales of $367.67 billion continue above the 12-month moving average of $359.906 billion and have remained above since August 2009 (14 consecutive months). The short-term trend has been upwards.

Chart Below is a 35 month chart of USA sales for retail & food services from November 2007 (the cyclical peak) through the latest month reported, September. USA. Sales peaked in November 2007 at $379.960 billion, began downtrending in July 2008 at an increasing rate. The bottom was in December 2008 at $335.614 billion. The current September sales of $367.67 billion are both the short-term and intermediate-term highs.



Commentary

This is encouraging data that the September sales for retail and food services was $367.67B and is not only a short-term high but an intermediate-term high. Therefore, USA sales are well off the cyclical bottom of $335.614B in December 2008. Since consumer spending, consumption is a significant portion of the USA economy (60%+ of GDP), this upsurge should strengthen USA economic (GDP) growth.


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