Friday, March 8, 2013

USA Weekly Leading Index Continues Below Peak

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate


USA Weekly Leading Index
Current Reading: 129.3 (+0.9)
Post-Recession High: 135.2 (4-30-10)
Great Recession Low: 105.4 (3-6-09)
Pre-Recession Peak: 136.4 (1-11-08)


USA Annualized Growth Rate
Current Reading: +6.2% (-0.6)
Post-Recession High: +27.7% (10-9-09)
Great Recession Low: -29.5% (12-5-08)
Pre-Recession Peak: +6.6% (5-18-07)


(Business Insider) A Stock Market Trend Has Developed That Coincided With The Last 3 Recessions In a new report, ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan reiterates his thesis that the U.S. economy is in a recession.

This is a bar chart of S&P 500 operating earnings growth going back a quarter of a century on a consistent basis, as we understand from S&P. Others can choose their own definitions of operating earnings, but this is the data from S&P. In this chart, the height of the red bar indicates the number of consecutive quarters of negative earnings growth.



A Stock Market Trend Has Developed That Coincided With The Last 3 Recessions

ACHUTHAN: Look At These Charts And Tell Me We're Not In Recession

Lakshman Achuthan and the ECRI According to Lakshman Achuthan's interpretation of his economic indicators (the Weekly Leading Index, the Annualized Growth Rate, and other metrics), a USA Recession is here, right now. He initially predicted in September 2011 there would be an eventual economic downturn. He has continued affirming since. Achuthan had said it could take up to a year from December 2011 to prove him correct. In March 2013, he has presented the report noted above.

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