USA Weekly Unemployment Claims at 7-Week Low

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U.S. Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Seasonally Adjusted)

Seasonally Adjusted Data:
Current Claims: 332,000 and -10,000
Trend: 7-week low
2013 weekly average: 351,000 (rounded)
2012 weekly average: 375,000 (rounded)

U.S. Department of Labor... In the week ending March 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 332,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 342,000. The 4-week moving average was 346,750, a decrease of 2,750 from the previous week's revised average of 349,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.4 percent for the week ending March 2, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending March 2 was 3,024,000, a decrease of 89,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,113,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,098,250, a decrease of 28,250 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,126,500.

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

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USA Employment Trends Index at Post-Recession High!

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The Conference Board: Employment Trends Index

(The Conference Board) "The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™(ETI) increased in February. The index now stands at 111.14, up from 109.93 (an upward revision) in January. The February figure is 3.2 percent higher than a year ago."

Employment Trends Index by Month

Current Index: 111.14 (Post-Recession High)
Post-Recession High: 111.14 (February 2013)
Great Recession Low: 87.76 (May 2009)
Pre-Recession High: 123.83 (March 2007)

“As a result of the large increase in February, and positive revisions to earlier months, the Employment Trends index is signaling an improving employment environment,” said Gad Levanon, Director of Macroeconomic Research at The Conference Board. “However, even though the labor market has gained in recent months, the looming sequester is likely to slow the pace of job creation in the near term.”

Employment Trends Index by Year

2013 Index Average: 111
Post-Recession High: 111 (2013)
Great Recession Low: 89 (2009)
Pre-Recession High: 122 (2006 and 2007)

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USA Weekly Leading Index Continues Below Peak

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate

USA Weekly Leading Index

Current Reading: 129.3 (+0.9)
Post-Recession High: 135.2 (4-30-10)
Great Recession Low: 105.4 (3-6-09)
Pre-Recession Peak: 136.4 (1-11-08)

USA Annualized Growth Rate

Current Reading: +6.2% (-0.6)
Post-Recession High: +27.7% (10-9-09)
Great Recession Low: -29.5% (12-5-08)
Pre-Recession Peak: +6.6% (5-18-07)

(Business Insider) A Stock Market Trend Has Developed That Coincided With The Last 3 Recessions In a new report, ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan reiterates his thesis that the U.S. economy is in a recession.

This is a bar chart of S&P 500 operating earnings growth going back a quarter of a century on a consistent basis, as we understand from S&P. Others can choose their own definitions of operating earnings, but this is the data from S&P. In this chart, the height of the red bar indicates the number of consecutive quarters of negative earnings growth.



A Stock Market Trend Has Developed That Coincided With The Last 3 Recessions

ACHUTHAN: Look At These Charts And Tell Me We're Not In Recession

Lakshman Achuthan and the ECRI According to Lakshman Achuthan's interpretation of his economic indicators (the Weekly Leading Index, the Annualized Growth Rate, and other metrics), a USA Recession is here, right now. He initially predicted in September 2011 there would be an eventual economic downturn. He has continued affirming since. Achuthan had said it could take up to a year from December 2011 to prove him correct. In March 2013, he has presented the report noted above.

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USA Labor and Employment Ratios Remain at Low Levels

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Bureau of Labor Statistics: Employment Situation Summary

USA Labor Force Participation Rate
Seasonally Adjusted
Current Rate: 63.5% (-0.1)
Trend: Below 64% since January 2012
Recent Lows: 63.5% (February 2013 and August 2012)
All-Time High: 67.3% (January through April 2000)

USA Employment to Population Ratio
Seasonally Adjusted
Current Rate: 58.6% (no change)
Trend: Below 60% since March 2009
Recent Lows: 58.2% (November 2010, June 2011, July 2011)
All-Time High: 64.7% (April 2000)



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3 Million USA Jobs Remaining to Be Restored from Great Recession

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Bureau of Labor Statistics: Employment Situation Summary

Using the government's seasonally adjusted data, net job losses were -8.67 million during the 2008 - 2009 Great Recession. Net job gains have been +5.67 million in the subsequent 2010 - 2013 recovery. That leaves 3.00 million jobs to be restored to get the USA to back to even, to the beginning of 2008 and before the Great Recession. This does not count any net increase in people entering the work force since the end of the Great Recession, American workers taking lower paying jobs, or Americans leaving the workforce. This is probably the best-case scenario.

In the first chart below, for the current year 2013, jobs data has been extrapolated based on the number of months reported to obtain an annualized net gain (loss).

USA Jobs Gains (Losses) by Year



USA Jobs Gains (Losses) by Month



USA Private Sector Jobs Gains (Losses) by Month



USA Public Sector Jobs Gains (Losses) by Month



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USA Unemployment Rate Dips to 7.7%, Lowest Since December 2008

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Bureau of Labor Statistics: Employment Situation Summary

(Bureau of Labor Statistics) Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 236,000 in February, and the unemployment rate edged down to 7.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services, construction, and health care.

USA Unemployment Rate by Month



USA Underemployment Rate by Month



USA Total Unemployed by Month



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Global Economy Expands, Worldwide Job Creation

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JPMorgan & Markit Global Indexes

Global All-Industry Output Index by Month
Index > 50.0 is expansion, Index < 50.0 is contraction



David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said: "The global economy continued to expand in February. Although the rate of expansion eased to a four-month low, the loss of momentum was only slight and improving inflows of new business raise the chances of a near-term re-acceleration.  Economic growth is also supporting further job creation, which will hopefully provide a helpful spur to demand."

Global Manufacturing PMI by Month
PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction



Global Services PMI by Month
PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction



Worldwide Employment Increases "February data signalled an increase in global all-industry employment for the fifth month running, with the rate of jobs growth unchanged from January's 20-month peak. Service sector staffing levels continued to rise at a solid clip, whereas the rate of expansion in manufacturing payroll numbers remained negligible."

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USA Weekly Unemployment Claims at 6-Week Low

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U.S. Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Seasonally Adjusted)

Seasonally Adjusted Data:
Current Claims: 340,000 and -7,000
Trend: 6-week low
2013 weekly average: 353,000 (rounded)
2012 weekly average: 375,000 (rounded)

U.S. Department of Labor... In the week ending March 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 340,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 347,000. The 4-week moving average was 348,750, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week's revised average of 355,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.4 percent for the week ending February 23, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending February 23 was 3,094,000, an increase of 3,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,091,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,121,750, a decrease of 37,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,159,250.

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

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USA Services Sector Grows, Employment Increases

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ISM: Monthly USA NMI

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI) by Month
NMI > 50.0 is expansion, NMI < 50.0 is contraction



Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee said, "The NMI™ registered 56 percent in February, 0.8 percentage point higher than the 55.2 percent registered in January. This indicates continued growth at a slightly faster rate in the non-manufacturing sector. This month's reading also reflects the highest NMI™ since February 2012, when the index registered 56.1 percent. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index registered 56.9 percent, which is 0.5 percentage point higher than the 56.4 percent reported in January, reflecting growth for the 43rd consecutive month. The New Orders Index increased by 3.8 percentage points to 58.2 percent, and the Employment Index decreased 0.3 percentage point to 57.2 percent, indicating growth in employment for the seventh consecutive month. The Prices Index increased 3.7 percentage points to 61.7 percent, indicating prices increased at a faster rate in February when compared to January. According to the NMI™, 13 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in February. The majority of respondents' comments reflect a growing optimism about the trend of the economy and overall business conditions."

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI) by Year
NMI > 50.0 is expansion, NMI < 50.0 is contraction



American Services Sector Employment Increases "Employment activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in February for the seventh consecutive month. ISM's Non-Manufacturing Employment Index registered 57.2 percent, which reflects a decrease of 0.3 percentage point when compared to the 57.5 percent registered in January. Eleven industries reported increased employment, five industries reported decreased employment, and two industries reported unchanged employment compared to January. Comments from respondents include: "Positions are still being filled, but slowly" and "Staff added to accommodate demand."

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USA Manufacturing Expands, Jobs Rise

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USA Monthly Manufacturing PMI

ISM Manufacturing Index (PMI) by Month
PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction



Bradley J. Holcomb, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, stated, "The PMI™ registered 54.2 percent, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from January's reading of 53.1 percent, indicating expansion in manufacturing for the third consecutive month. This month's reading reflects the highest PMI™ since June 2011, when the index registered 55.8 percent. The New Orders Index registered 57.8 percent, an increase of 4.5 percent over January's reading of 53.3 percent, indicating growth in new orders for the second consecutive month. As was the case in January, all five of the PMI™'s component indexes — new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories — registered in positive territory in February. In addition, the Backlog of Orders, Exports and Imports Indexes all grew in February relative to January."

ISM Manufacturing Index (PMI) by Year
PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction



American Manufacturing Jobs Increase "ISM's Employment Index registered 52.6 percent in February, which is 1.4 percentage points lower than the 54 percent reported in January. This month's reading indicates growth in employment for the 41st consecutive month. An Employment Index above 50.5 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment."

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USA GDP a Flat +0.1% in Fourth Quarter 2012

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Bureau of Economic Analysis: Gross Domestic Product

(Bureau of Economic Analysis) Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012 (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, real GDP declined 0.1 percent. The upward revision to the percent change in real GDP is smaller than the average revision from the advance to second estimate of 0.5 percentage point. While today’s release has revised the direction of change in real GDP, the general picture of the economy for the fourth quarter remains largely the same as what was presented last month

The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment, federal government spending, exports, and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

The deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected downturns in private inventory investment, in federal government spending, in exports, and in state and local government spending that were partly offset by an upturn in nonresidential fixed investment, a larger decrease in imports, and an acceleration in PCE.

USA GDP Change by Quarter (QoQ %)



USA Real GDP Change by Quarter (QoQ %): Components



USA Real GDP Totals by Quarter ($)



Real GDP Component Totals by Quarter ($)



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