Thursday, December 20, 2012

USA Employment Trends Index Sputters: "Growth likely to slow again"

The Conference Board: Employment Trends Index

The November 2012 Employment Trends Index decreased slightly -0.02 to 107.82 (preliminary), which is the 4th decrease in the past 6 months. The ETI has continued above the 100.00 benchmark for 23 consecutive months, after 26 consecutive months below (November 2008 through December 2010).

Employment Trends Index by Month The Conference Board Employment Trends Index reached a Post-Great Recession high of 108.50 in May 2012. The Great Recession cyclical low was 87.78 in May 2009. The Pre-Great Recession peak was 123.86 in March 2007.

Employment Trends Index by Year The Conference Board Employment Trends Index by Year is the average of the related months. The Great Recession low was in 2009 at 89 and the Post-Great Recession peak has been in 2012 YTD at 108 (preliminary). The Pre-Great Recession Peak was both 2006 and 2007 at 122.

“The Employment Trends Index remains weak and suggests that employment growth over the next several months is likely to slow again,” said Gad Levanon, Director of Macroeconomic Research at The Conference Board. “Employment growth typically lags economic growth, and with the economy expected to decelerate in the current quarter and early 2013, a slowdown in employment won’t be far behind.” November’s decline in the ETI was driven by a large negative contribution from Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance.


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