USA Weekly Leading Index Rises to 73-Week High!

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate

Lakshman Achuthan and the ECRI According to Lakshman Achuthan's interpretation of his economic indicators (the Weekly Leading Index, the Annualized Growth Rate, and other metrics), a USA Recession is here, right now. He initially predicted in September 2011 there would be an eventual economic downturn. He has continued affirming since. Achuthan had said it could take up to a year from December 2011 to prove him correct. The video below is Achuthan's latest comments.

USA Weekly Leading Index

USA Annualized Growth Rate

Recession Underway November 29, 2012 (Bloomberg) -- Indicators used to determine official U.S. recession dates have been falling since mid-year. Lakshman Achuthan, chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, talks about the U.S. economy. Achuthan speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)

Watch video here.

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USA Weekly Unemployment Claims Decrease to 11-Week Low

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U.S. Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

Unemployment claims had been above or near 400,000 (seasonally adjusted) due to Hurricane Sandy. Current claims (350,000) are now below the 2012 weekly average of 375,000. Claims are usually lower in December due to temporary Holiday hiring. A subsequent spike in claims occurs in January.

(U.S. Department of Labor) In the week ending December 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 350,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 362,000. The 4-week moving average was 356,750, a decrease of 11,250 from the previous week's revised average of 368,000.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.5 percent for the week ending December 15, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending December 15 was 3,206,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,238,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,219,000, a decrease of 24,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,243,750.

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Seasonally Adjusted)

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

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USA Leading Economic Index Dips: "Six-month growth rate to zero"

The Conference Board: USA Monthly Leading Index

The November 2012 USA Monthly Leading Economic Index slightly decreased -0.2 to 95.8 (preliminary), just below the October 2012 post-recession high of 96.0. Overall, slow economic growth is forecast but downside risk exists via the global economy becoming a drag.

USA Monthly Leading Economic Index The 12-month moving average is 95.5 as of November 2012.



“The U.S. LEI decreased slightly in November, bringing its six-month growth rate to zero,” says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board. “The LEI points to increasing risks of slowing economic activity in the near term, but the coincident economic index, measuring current conditions, continued to increase in November. Gains in the residential construction and financial components of the LEI have been roughly balanced with weak consumer expectations, manufacturing new orders and labor market indicators over the last six months.”

USA Monthly Composite Indexes The November 2012 readings are chart highs for the Lagging and Coincident Indicators and a nearly a chart high for the Leading Indicator. The Indexes have been revamped with benchmark revisions (2004 = 100.00).



Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: “The indicators reflect an economy that remains weak in the face of strong domestic and international headwinds, as it faces a looming fiscal cliff. Growth will likely be slow through the early months of 2013.”

USA LEI Components: Five of the ten indicators that make up The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. increased in November. The positive contributors – beginning with the largest positive contributor – were the interest rate spread, building permits, the Leading Credit Index™ (inverted), average weekly manufacturing hours, and manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials. The negative contributors – beginning with the largest negative contributor – were average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), stock prices, the ISM® new orders index, manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft*, and average consumer expectations for business conditions.

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USA GDP 3.1% at 3-Quarter High

Bureau of Economic Analysis: Gross Domestic Product

(Bureau of Economic Analysis) Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the third quarter of 2012 (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 1.3 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.7 percent (see "Revisions" on page 3). The third estimate has not greatly changed the general picture of the economy for the third quarter except that personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is now showing a modest pickup, and imports is now showing a downturn.

The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from PCE, private inventory investment, federal government spending, residential fixed investment, and exports that were partly offset by a negative contribution from nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

The acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected upturns in private inventory investment and in federal government spending, a downturn in imports, an upturn in state and local government spending, and an acceleration in residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a downturn in nonresidential fixed investment and a deceleration in exports.

USA GDP by Percentage





USA GDP by Dollars





There is a more important chapter developing in the Story of America. The annualized GDP is $15+ trillion and the funded national debt is now $16+ trillion. Yes, the USA funded debt exceeds GDP as the federal budget deficits continue uncontrolled. The funded sovereign debt to GDP ratio has now exceeded 100%. The unfunded debt is much higher and Washington pretends that doesn't exist. An updated review of this USA milestone and the upcoming American Day of Reckoning is reviewed periodically:

America: Land of Indefinite Corporate Power, Debt, Detention, Quantitative Easing, Wars

USA Sovereign Debt Now Exceeds GDP: Greetings From Big Brother

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USA Industrial Production Rebounds to 4-Month High

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Federal Reserve Statistical Release: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production increased 1.1 percent in November after having fallen 0.7 percent in October. The gain in November is estimated to have largely resulted from a recovery in production for industries that had been negatively affected by Hurricane Sandy, which hit the Northeast region in late October. In November, manufacturing output increased 1.1 percent after having decreased 1.0 percent in October; in addition to the storm-related rebound, a sizable rise in the production of motor vehicles and parts boosted factory output in November. The output of utilities advanced 1.0 percent, and production at mines rose 0.8 percent. At 97.5 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production in November was 2.5 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for total industry increased 0.7 percentage point to 78.4 percent, a rate 1.9 percentage points below its long-run (1972--2011) average.

USA Monthly Industrial Production

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USA Weekly Leading Index Flattens Near Peak

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate

Lakshman Achuthan and the ECRI According to Lakshman Achuthan's interpretation of his economic indicators (the Weekly Leading Index, the Annualized Growth Rate, and other metrics), a USA Recession is here, right now. He initially predicted in September 2011 there would be an eventual economic downturn. He has continued affirming since. Achuthan had said it could take up to a year from December 2011 to prove him correct. The video below is Achuthan's latest comments.

USA Weekly Leading Index

USA Annualized Growth Rate

Recession Underway November 29, 2012 (Bloomberg) -- Indicators used to determine official U.S. recession dates have been falling since mid-year. Lakshman Achuthan, chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, talks about the U.S. economy. Achuthan speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)

Watch video here.

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USA Employment Trends Index Sputters: "Growth likely to slow again"

The Conference Board: Employment Trends Index

The November 2012 Employment Trends Index decreased slightly -0.02 to 107.82 (preliminary), which is the 4th decrease in the past 6 months. The ETI has continued above the 100.00 benchmark for 23 consecutive months, after 26 consecutive months below (November 2008 through December 2010).

Employment Trends Index by Month The Conference Board Employment Trends Index reached a Post-Great Recession high of 108.50 in May 2012. The Great Recession cyclical low was 87.78 in May 2009. The Pre-Great Recession peak was 123.86 in March 2007.



Employment Trends Index by Year The Conference Board Employment Trends Index by Year is the average of the related months. The Great Recession low was in 2009 at 89 and the Post-Great Recession peak has been in 2012 YTD at 108 (preliminary). The Pre-Great Recession Peak was both 2006 and 2007 at 122.



“The Employment Trends Index remains weak and suggests that employment growth over the next several months is likely to slow again,” said Gad Levanon, Director of Macroeconomic Research at The Conference Board. “Employment growth typically lags economic growth, and with the economy expected to decelerate in the current quarter and early 2013, a slowdown in employment won’t be far behind.” November’s decline in the ETI was driven by a large negative contribution from Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance.

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USA Weekly Unemployment Claims Increase to 361K

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U.S. Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

Unemployment claims had been above or near 400,000 (seasonally adjusted) due to Hurricane Sandy. Current claims (361,000) are now below the 2012 weekly average of 375,000. Claims are usually lower in December due to temporary Holiday hiring. A subsequent spike in claims occurs in January.

In the week ending December 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 361,000, an increase of 17,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 344,000. The 4-week moving average was 367,750, a decrease of 13,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 381,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.5 percent for the week ending December 8, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending December 8 was 3,225,000, an increase of 12,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,213,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,240,500, a decrease of 33,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,274,000.

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Seasonally Adjusted)

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

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Global Economic Growth Continues at Slow Pace

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JPMorgan & Markit Global Indexes

Global All-Industry Output Index by Month



November saw the fastest expansion of global economic output since March. Growth of service sector business activity accelerated sharply, while the manufacturing sector stabilised following a four-month period of contraction.

The Global All-Industry Output Index – produced by JPMorgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM – rose to an eight-month high of 53.7 in November, and has now signalled expansion in each of the past 40 months. However, at its current level, the Output Index is only consistent with a moderate rate of increase in global GDP

David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said: "Although global GDP growth remains muted, the latest PMI data are at least showing positive signs in the service sector at a time when forward-looking indicators for manufacturing suggest the sector should move back into growth territory around year-end. Cost-caution still prevails across the global economy, however, which will continue to hold back employment over the near-term horizon."

Global Manufacturing PMI by Month



Global Services PMI by Month

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Global Services Sector Rebounds Sharply

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JPMorgan and Markit Global Indexes

Global Services PMI by Month



Growth of the global service sector continued in November, as the rate of increase accelerated sharply to hit an eight-month peak

At 54.9 in November, up from 51.9 in October, the JPMorgan Global Services Business Activity Index – a composite index produced by JPMorgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM – stayed in expansion territory for the fortieth consecutive month.

David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said: "Growth of the global service sector posted a solid acceleration in November, with rates of expansion in output and new orders hitting eight-month highs. This wasn't reflected in the labour market, however, as cost-cautious service providers refrained from raising capacity."

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Global Manufacturing Contracts for 6th Consecutive Month, Worldwide Job Losses Continue

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JPMorgan & Markit Global Indexes

JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI by Month



David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said: "Global manufacturing appears to be lifting into year’s end. Survey indexes of output, new orders and employment continue to improve, albeit from low levels, while the rate of finished goods inventory accumulation is indicated to be quite low. This pattern typically heralds faster output gains."

Worldwide Jobs Losses Continue "November saw global manufacturing employment reduced for the fifth consecutive month. However, the rate of loss has remained only marginal throughout this sequence. The main centre of job creation was North America, with modest increases recorded in the US, Canada and Mexico. Payroll numbers were reduced in China, Japan, South Korea and (on average) across the European Union."

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USA Services Sector: "Cautious optimism about economic conditions"

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ISM: Monthly USA NMI

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI) by Month



Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee said, "The NMI registered 54.7 percent in November, 0.5 percentage point higher than the 54.2 percent registered in October. This indicates continued growth at a slightly faster rate in the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index registered 61.2 percent, which is 5.8 percentage points higher than the 55.4 percent reported in October, reflecting growth for the 40th consecutive month. The New Orders Index increased by 3.3 percentage points to 58.1 percent. The Employment Index decreased by 4.6 percentage points to 50.3 percent, indicating growth in employment for the fourth consecutive month but at a slower rate. The Prices Index decreased 8.6 percentage points to 57 percent, indicating prices increased at a slower rate in November when compared to October. According to the NMI, 11 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in November. Respondents' comments are mixed; however, the majority of survey respondents reflect a cautious optimism about current economic conditions."

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI) by Year

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USA Manufacturing Contracts in November

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USA Monthly Manufacturing PMIs

ISM Manufacturing Index (PMI) by Month



Bradley J. Holcomb, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, stated, "The PMI registered 49.5 percent, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points from October's reading of 51.7 percent, indicating contraction in manufacturing for the fourth time in the last six months. This month's PMI reading reflects the lowest level since July 2009 when the PMI registered 49.2 percent. The New Orders Index registered 50.3 percent, a decrease of 3.9 percentage points from October, indicating growth in new orders for the third consecutive month. The Production Index registered 53.7 percent, an increase of 1.3 percentage points, indicating growth in production for the second consecutive month. The Employment Index registered 48.4 percent, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points, which is the index's lowest reading since September 2009 when the Employment Index registered 47.8 percent. The Prices Index registered 52.5 percent, reflecting a decrease of 2.5 percentage points. Comments from the panel this month generally indicate that the second half of the year continues to show a slowdown in demand; respondents also express concern over how and when the fiscal cliff issue will be resolved.

ISM Manufacturing Index (PMI) by Year

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USA Weekly Leading Index at 69-Week High!

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate

Lakshman Achuthan and the ECRI According to Lakshman Achuthan's interpretation of his economic indicators (the Weekly Leading Index, the Annualized Growth Rate, and other metrics), a USA Recession is here, right now. He initially predicted in September 2011 there would be an eventual economic downturn. He has continued affirming since. Achuthan had said it could take up to a year from December 2011 to prove him correct. The video below is Achuthan's latest comments.

USA Weekly Leading Index

USA Annualized Growth Rate

Recession Underway November 29, 2012 (Bloomberg) -- Indicators used to determine official U.S. recession dates have been falling since mid-year. Lakshman Achuthan, chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, talks about the U.S. economy. Achuthan speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)

Watch video here.

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USA Weekly Unemployment Claims at 9-Week Low

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U.S. Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

Unemployment claims had been above or near 400,000 (seasonally adjusted) due to Hurricane Sandy. Current claims (343,000) are now below the 2012 weekly average of 375,000. Claims are usually lower in December due to temporary Holiday hiring. A subsequent spike in claims occurs in January.

In the week ending December 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 343,000, a decrease of 29,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 372,000. The 4-week moving average was 381,500, a decrease of 27,000 from the previous week's revised average of 408,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.5 percent for the week ending December 1, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending December 1 was 3,198,000, a decrease of 23,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,221,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,270,750, a decrease of 42,250 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,313,000.

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Seasonally Adjusted)

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

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USA Weekly Leading Index: Recession Underway

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate

Lakshman Achuthan and the ECRI According to Lakshman Achuthan's interpretation of his economic indicators (the Weekly Leading Index, the Annualized Growth Rate, and other metrics), a USA Recession is here, right now. He initially predicted in September 2011 there would be an eventual economic downturn. He has continued affirming since. Achuthan had said it could take up to a year from December 2011 to prove him correct. The video below is Achuthan's latest comments.

USA Weekly Leading Index

USA Annualized Growth Rate

Recession Underway November 29, 2012 (Bloomberg) -- Indicators used to determine official U.S. recession dates have been falling since mid-year. Lakshman Achuthan, chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, talks about the U.S. economy. Achuthan speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)

Watch video here.

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USA Weekly Unemployment Claims Continue Below 400,000

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U.S. Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

Unemployment claims had been above or near 400,000 (seasonally adjusted) due to Hurricane Sandy. Current claims (370,000) are now below the 2012 weekly average of 376,000.

In the week ending December 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 370,000, a decrease of 25,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 395,000. The 4-week moving average was 408,000, an increase of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average of 405,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.5 percent for the week ending November 24, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending November 24 was 3,205,000, a decrease of 100,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,305,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,309,000, an increase of 7,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,301,250.

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Seasonally Adjusted)

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

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