Tuesday, November 20, 2012

USA Employment Trends Index: "Poised to remain slow"

The Conference Board: Employment Trends Index

The October 2012 Employment Trends Index increased slightly +0.53 to 108.16 (preliminary), which is the 2nd increase in the past 5 months and a 2-month high. The ETI has continued above the 100.00 benchmark for 22 consecutive months, after 26 consecutive months below (November 2008 through December 2010).

Employment Trends Index by Month The Conference Board Employment Trends Index reached a Post-Great Recession high of 108.50 in May 2012. The Great Recession cyclical low was 87.78 in May 2009. The Pre-Great Recession peak was 123.86 in March 2007.

Employment Trends Index by Year The Conference Board Employment Trends Index by Year is the average of the related months. The Great Recession low was in 2009 at 89 and the Post-Great Recession peak has been in 2012 YTD at 108 (preliminary). The Pre-Great Recession Peak was both 2006 and 2007 at 122.

“The Employment Trends Index bounced back in October, but only to the levels of July and August,” said Gad Levanon, Director of Macroeconomic Research at The Conference Board. “This is still a weak signal. And given the recent sluggishness of economic activity, employment growth is poised to remain slow in the coming months as well.”


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