USA Weekly Leading Index Edges Up Again

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate

Lakshman Achuthan and the ECRI According to Lakshman Achuthan's interpretation of his economic indicators (the Weekly Leading Index, the Annualized Growth Rate, and other metrics), a USA Recession is here, right now. He initially predicted in September 2011 there would be an eventual economic downturn. He has continued affirming since. Achuthan had said it could take up to a year from December 2011 to prove him correct. The video below is Achuthan's latest comments.

USA Weekly Leading Index

USA Annualized Growth Rate

ECRI's Achuthan Says U.S. Economy Is in Recession July 10, 2012 (Bloomberg) -- Lakshman Achuthan, chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, talks about the performance of the U.S. economy. Achuthan speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg) Watch video here.

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USA Weekly Unemployment Claims Drop Below 400,000

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U.S. Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

Unemployment claims the past 3 weeks have been above or near 400,000 (seasonally adjusted). The increase is attributable to Hurricane Sandy.

In the week ending November 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 393,000, a decrease of 23,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 416,000. The 4-week moving average was 405,250, an increase of 7,500 from the previous week's revised average of 397,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.6 percent for the week ending November 17, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending November 17 was 3,287,000, a decrease of 70,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,357,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,296,250, an increase of 6,250 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,290,000.

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Seasonally Adjusted)

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

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USA Leading Economic Index Increases: "Modestly expanding economic activity"

The Conference Board: USA Monthly Leading Index

The October 2012 USA Monthly Leading Economic Index slightly increased +0.2 to 96.0 (preliminary), which is a post-recession high. Overall, slow economic growth is forecast but downside risk exists via the global economy becoming a drag.

USA Monthly Leading Economic Index The 12-month moving average is 95.3 as of October 2012.



Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board, said "The U.S. LEI increased slightly in October, the second consecutive increase. The LEI still points to modestly expanding economic activity in the near term. Over the last six months, improvements in the residential construction and financial components of the LEI have offset weak consumer expectations, manufacturing new orders and labor market components. Meanwhile, the coincident economic index also increased slightly in October."

USA Monthly Composite Indexes The October 2012 readings are chart highs for the Lagging and Leading Indicators and a nearly a chart high for the Coincident Indicator. The Indexes have been revamped with benchmark revisions (2004 = 100.00).



Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board, said "Based on current trends, the economy will continue to expand modestly through the early months of 2013. Hurricane Sandy, which is not yet fully reflected in the LEI, will likely adversely affect consumer spending and home building in the short-term, but it’s too soon to gauge the net impact. In addition, the outcome of the fiscal cliff debates is another factor which could alter the outlook."

USA LEI Components: Four of the ten indicators that make up The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. increased in October. The positive contributors – beginning with the largest positive contributor – were the interest rate spread, the Leading Credit Index (inverted), average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), and manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft*. The negative contributors – beginning with the largest negative contributor – were building permits, average consumer expectations for business conditions, the ISM new orders index, and stock prices. Average weekly manufacturing hours and manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials* held steady in October.

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USA Weekly Leading Index Edges Up

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate

Lakshman Achuthan and the ECRI According to Lakshman Achuthan's interpretation of his economic indicators (the Weekly Leading Index, the Annualized Growth Rate, and other metrics), a USA Recession is here, right now. He initially predicted in September 2011 there would be an eventual economic downturn. He has continued affirming since. Achuthan had said it could take up to a year from December 2011 to prove him correct. The video below is Achuthan's latest comments.

USA Weekly Leading Index

USA Annualized Growth Rate

ECRI's Achuthan Says U.S. Economy Is in Recession July 10, 2012 (Bloomberg) -- Lakshman Achuthan, chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, talks about the performance of the U.S. economy. Achuthan speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg) Watch video here.

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USA Weekly Unemployment Claims Continue Above 400,000

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U.S. Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

Unemployment claims the past 2 weeks greater than 400,000 (seasonally adjusted) are attributable to Hurricane Sandy.

In the week ending November 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 410,000, a decrease of 41,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 451,000. The 4-week moving average was 396,250, an increase of 9,500 from the previous week's revised average of 386,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.6 percent for the week ending November 10, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending November 10 was 3,337,000, a decrease of 30,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,367,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,285,000, an increase of 19,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,265,500.

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Seasonally Adjusted)

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

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USA Industrial Production Drops to 7-Month Low

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Federal Reserve Statistical Release: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production declined 0.4 percent in October after having increased 0.2 percent in September. Hurricane Sandy, which held down production in the Northeast region at the end of October, is estimated to have reduced the rate of change in total output by nearly 1 percentage point. The largest estimated storm-related effects included reductions in the output of utilities, of chemicals, of food, of transportation equipment, and of computers and electronic products. In October, the index for manufacturing decreased 0.9 percent; excluding storm-related effects, factory output was roughly unchanged from September. The output of utilities edged down 0.1 percent in October, and production at mines advanced 1.5 percent. At 96.6 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production in October was 1.7 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for total industry decreased 0.4 percentage point to 77.8 percent, a rate 2.5 percentage points below its long-run (1972--2011) average.

USA Monthly Industrial Production

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USA Employment Trends Index: "Poised to remain slow"

The Conference Board: Employment Trends Index

The October 2012 Employment Trends Index increased slightly +0.53 to 108.16 (preliminary), which is the 2nd increase in the past 5 months and a 2-month high. The ETI has continued above the 100.00 benchmark for 22 consecutive months, after 26 consecutive months below (November 2008 through December 2010).

Employment Trends Index by Month The Conference Board Employment Trends Index reached a Post-Great Recession high of 108.50 in May 2012. The Great Recession cyclical low was 87.78 in May 2009. The Pre-Great Recession peak was 123.86 in March 2007.



Employment Trends Index by Year The Conference Board Employment Trends Index by Year is the average of the related months. The Great Recession low was in 2009 at 89 and the Post-Great Recession peak has been in 2012 YTD at 108 (preliminary). The Pre-Great Recession Peak was both 2006 and 2007 at 122.



“The Employment Trends Index bounced back in October, but only to the levels of July and August,” said Gad Levanon, Director of Macroeconomic Research at The Conference Board. “This is still a weak signal. And given the recent sluggishness of economic activity, employment growth is poised to remain slow in the coming months as well.”

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Washington Jobs Propaganda: USA Unemployment Rate 7.9%

Bureau of Labor Statistics: Employment Situation Summary

USA Jobs Gains (Losses) by Year



USA Labor Force Participation Rate and USA Employment to Population Ratio



USA Unemployment Rate



USA Underemployment Rate



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Global Economic Growth Remains Subdued

JPMorgan & Markit Global Indexes

Global All-Industry Output Index by Month



The global economy started Q4 2012 on a lacklustre footing. Rates of expansion in output and new orders remained well below their long-run trends, as growth at service providers was offset by the ongoing contraction at manufacturers.

The Global All-Industry Output Index – produced by JPMorgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM – posted 51.3 in October, down from 52.4 in September. The headline index has signalled expansion for 39 successive months. However, following a brief spell of solid growth during the opening quarter of the year, the rate of expansion since then has remained weak overall.

David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said: "The start of the final quarter has seen global economic growtt continue to track at a below long run trend pace. A contracting manufacturing sector remains the main drag, while the larger service sector remains on a subdued expansion path. The trend in employment has also been volatile in recent months, as companies continue to assess future growth prospects."

Global Manufacturing PMI by Month



Global Services PMI by Month

Global Services Sector Growth Slows in October

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JPMorgan and Markit Global Indexes

Global Services PMI by Month



The rate of expansion in the global service sector moderated at the start of Q4 2012, as growth of both business activity and new business eased in October.

The JPMorgan Global Services Business Activity Index – a composite index produced by JPMorgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM – edged down to 52.1 in October, from September's six-month high of 53.8. The headline index has nonetheless signalled expansion in each of the past 39 months.

David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said: "The global service sector continued to expand in October. Although rates of growth in both output and new orders lost momentum, companies were sufficiently encouraged to raise employment for the second time in the past three months. Cost pressures also remained elevated compared to mid-year."

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USA Services Sector: "Continued growth at slightly slower rate"

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ISM: Monthly USA NMI

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI) by Month



Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee said, "The NMI registered 54.2 percent in October, 0.9 percentage point lower than the 55.1 percent registered in September. This indicates continued growth this month at a slightly slower rate in the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index registered 55.4 percent, which is 4.5 percentage points lower than the 59.9 percent reported in September, reflecting growth for the 39th consecutive month. The New Orders Index decreased by 2.9 percentage points to 54.8 percent. The Employment Index increased by 3.8 percentage points to 54.9 percent, indicating growth in employment for the third consecutive month. The Prices Index decreased 2.5 percentage points to 65.6 percent, indicating prices increased at a slower rate in October when compared to September. According to the NMI™, 13 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in October. The majority of the respondents' comments reflect a positive but guarded outlook on business conditions and the economy.".

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI) by Year

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Global Manufacturing Contracts for 5th Consecutive Month, Worldwide Job Losses Resume

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JPMorgan & Markit Global Indexes

JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI by Month



"The downturn in the global manufacturing sector moderated in October. The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI - a composite index produced by JPMorgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM - rose for the second month running to reach 49.2, its highest reading during the current five-month period of contraction."

Worldwide Jobs Losses Resume "Subsequently, global manufacturing employment was reduced for the third time in the past four months. Job losses were seen across most of the Western European nations, China, Japan, Australia, South Africa and Brazil. In contrast, the US, Mexico and Canada reported higher employment"

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USA Manufacturing Expands in October!

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USA Monthly Manufacturing PMIs

Manufacturing expansion (> 50) was reported by both Markit (51.0) and ISM (51.7) for September 2012.


ISM Manufacturing Index (PMI) by Month



ISM Manufacturing Index (PMI) by Year

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USA Weekly Leading Index Dips to 8-Week Low

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate

Lakshman Achuthan and the ECRI According to Lakshman Achuthan's interpretation of his economic indicators (the Weekly Leading Index, the Annualized Growth Rate, and other metrics), a USA Recession is here, right now. He initially predicted in September 2011 there would be an eventual economic downturn. He has continued affirming since. Achuthan had said it could take up to a year from December 2011 to prove him correct. The video below is Achuthan's latest comments.

USA Weekly Leading Index

USA Annualized Growth Rate

ECRI's Achuthan Says U.S. Economy Is in Recession July 10, 2012 (Bloomberg) -- Lakshman Achuthan, chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, talks about the performance of the U.S. economy. Achuthan speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg) Watch video here.

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USA Weekly Unemployment Claims Spike to 80-Week High!

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U.S. Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

Unemployment claims of 439,000 (seasonally adjusted) are highest since the week ended April 30, 2011 (464,000) and attributable to Hurricane Sandy.

In the week ending November 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 439,000, an increase of 78,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 361,000. The 4-week moving average was 383,750, an increase of 11,750 from the previous week's revised average of 372,000.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.6 percent for the week ending November 3, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's revised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending November 3 was 3,334,000, an increase of 171,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,163,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,254,500, an increase of 17,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,236,750.

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Seasonally Adjusted)

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

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USA GDP an Unsustainable and Overstated +2.0%

Bureau of Economic Analysis: Gross Domestic Product

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the first (advance) estimate of Q3 2012 GDP which was +2.0% quarter over quarter (annualized), an increase from the prior Q2 2012 estimate of +1.3%, and a drop from Q4 2011 of +4.1% peak. The total GDP reached an all-time high $15.78 trillion annualized. The GDP has increased quarter over quarter for 13 consecutive quarters, since Q3 2009. Since the Great Recession, growth rates have ranged from a near-recessionary +0.1% in Q1 2011 to a robust +4.1% in Q4 2011.

The latest GDP data indicates the economic growth profile is unsustainable long-term because government spending was +0.71% of the +2.0% total. This public sector spending consisted of federal spending of +0.72% and state & local spending of -0.01%. A significant portion of that federal spending was borrowed, not taxes collected and disbursed. So economic growth was leveraged by borrowing and increasing USA sovereign debt at the current artificially low interest rates held down by the Federal Reserve.

A decline in exports pulled down GDP by a moderate -0.23% and a slowing of imports raised GDP a meager +0.04%. The old faithfuls of consumer spending on goods (+1.03%) and services (+0.39%) kept the economy going. Private domestic investment of a slim +0.07% was the final negligible boost to USA economic growth. Rounding was -0.01%.

The latest GDP data indicates economic growth is overstated because inflation, and therefore the GDP deflator, was a +2.8% seasonally adjusted annual rate. Is inflation really just +2.8%? If you think so, then the GDP deflator is accurate. If you disagree, then the Q3 2012 GDP of +2.0% is overstated accordingly by the amount of additional inflation that should be accounted for (some estimates are as high as 6%+).

USA GDP by Percentage





USA GDP by Dollars





There is a more important chapter developing in the Story of America. The annualized GDP is $15+ trillion and the funded national debt is now $16+ trillion. Yes, the USA funded debt exceeds GDP as the federal budget deficits continue uncontrolled. The funded sovereign debt to GDP ratio has now exceeded 100%. The unfunded debt is much higher and Washington pretends that doesn't exist. An updated review of this USA milestone and the upcoming American Day of Reckoning is reviewed periodically:

America: Land of Indefinite Corporate Power, Debt, Detention, Quantitative Easing, Wars

USA Sovereign Debt Now Exceeds GDP: Greetings From Big Brother

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