Wednesday, September 26, 2012

World Trade Growth Has Collapsed!

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(Business Insider) The below chart comes from Morgan Stanley's latest Strategy Forum deck, and though it's simple, we suspect a lot of people haven't seen it yet, or really haven't made the connection between the chart and other big economic stories of the day.

There is a fairly strong positive correlation (82%) between the year over year change in waste carloads and the year over year change in GDP. The current prognosis? Bad. The USA economy is diving.

This is the chart that's causing warnings from FedEx.

This is the chart that's contributed to the collapse of the Shanghai Composite.

This is the why the Baltic Dry Index is down 60% this year.

It's why US manufacturing indices are giving off the weakest signs of the economy.

If the US goes into a recession in the next year, this will almost certainly be why.

World Trade YoY (%)


Business Insider: Global Growth Has Collapsed

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Seeking Alpha