USA Weekly Leading Index Continues Rising, at 25-Week High

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate

Lakshman Achuthan and the ECRI According to Lakshman Achuthan's interpretation of his economic indicators (the Weekly Leading Index, the Annualized Growth Rate, and other metrics), a USA Recession is here, right now. He initially predicted in September 2011 there would be an eventual economic downturn. He has continued affirming since. Achuthan had said it could take up to a year from December 2011 to prove him correct. The video below is Achuthan's latest comments.

USA Weekly Leading Index

USA Annualized Growth Rate

ECRI's Achuthan Says U.S. Economy Is in Recession July 10 (Bloomberg) -- Lakshman Achuthan, chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, talks about the performance of the U.S. economy. Achuthan speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg) Watch video here.

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USA Weekly Unemployment Claims at 9-Week Low

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U.S. Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

The latest weekly USA Federal Government propaganda and disinformation!

In the week ending September 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 359,000, a decrease of 26,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 385,000. The 4-week moving average was 374,000, a decrease of 4,500 from the previous week's revised average of 378,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.6 percent for the week ending September 15, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending September 15 was 3,271,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,275,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,295,500, a decrease of 15,000 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,310,500.

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Seasonally Adjusted)

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

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World Trade Growth Has Collapsed!

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(Business Insider) The below chart comes from Morgan Stanley's latest Strategy Forum deck, and though it's simple, we suspect a lot of people haven't seen it yet, or really haven't made the connection between the chart and other big economic stories of the day.

There is a fairly strong positive correlation (82%) between the year over year change in waste carloads and the year over year change in GDP. The current prognosis? Bad. The USA economy is diving.

This is the chart that's causing warnings from FedEx.

This is the chart that's contributed to the collapse of the Shanghai Composite.

This is the why the Baltic Dry Index is down 60% this year.

It's why US manufacturing indices are giving off the weakest signs of the economy.

If the US goes into a recession in the next year, this will almost certainly be why.

World Trade YoY (%)

Business Insider: Global Growth Has Collapsed

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USA LEI Decreases: "Pace of economic growth unlikely to change much in coming months"

The Conference Board: USA Monthly Leading Index

The August 2012 USA Monthly Leading Economic Index dipped -0.1 to 95.7 (preliminary), which is just below the post-recession highs of 95.8 for May 2012 and July 2012. Overall, continuing, slow economic growth is forecast but downside risk exists via the global economy becoming a drag. The LEI is being boosted by the rising stock market.

USA Monthly Leading Economic Index The 12-month moving average is 95.0 as of August 2012.



Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board, said "The U.S. LEI has declined in three of the last six months. While its six-month growth rate has slowed substantially, it still remains in growth territory due to positive contributions from the financial components including stock prices, yield spread and the Leading Credit Index. Over the last several months, the U.S. LEI seems to be fluctuating around a flat trend, while strengths and weaknesses among its components remain balanced. Meanwhile, the coincident economic index, a measure of current economic activity, edged up in August. The strengths among the coincident indicators have become less widespread, with three out of four components advancing over the past six months."

USA Monthly Composite Indexes The August 2012 readings are chart highs for the Lagging and Coincident indicators. The Leading indicators is just below the chart high. The Indexes have been revamped with benchmark revisions (2004 = 100.00).



Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board, said "The economy continues to be buffeted by strong headwinds domestically and internationally. As a result, the pace of growth is unlikely to change much in the coming months. Weak domestic demand continues to be a major drag on the economy."

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USA Weekly Leading Index Continues Rising, at 19-Week High

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate

Lakshman Achuthan and the ECRI According to Lakshman Achuthan's interpretation of his economic indicators (the Weekly Leading Index, the Annualized Growth Rate, and other metrics), a USA Recession is here, right now. He initially predicted in September 2011 there would be an eventual economic downturn. He has continued affirming since. Achuthan had said it could take up to a year from December 2011 to prove him correct. The video below is Achuthan's latest comments.

USA Weekly Leading Index

USA Annualized Growth Rate

ECRI's Achuthan Says U.S. Economy Is in Recession July 10 (Bloomberg) -- Lakshman Achuthan, chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, talks about the performance of the U.S. economy. Achuthan speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg) Watch video here.

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USA Manufacturing: "Another month of tough business conditions"

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Markit: Monthly USA PMI

This expansion (> 50) is in contrast to the ISM Manufacturing PMI which is reporting a contraction and posted on this website.

The preliminary ‘flash’ PMI reading, which is based on around 85% of usual monthly replies, remained only fractionally higher than the near three-year low recorded in June.


Markit USA Manufacturing Index (PMI) by Month



Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, said:

U.S. manufacturers reported another month of tough business conditions in September, rounding off the weakest quarter for three years.

With output growing at the slowest pace since the recovery began in October 2009, the manufacturing sector may have even acted as a slight drag on the economy in the third quarter. Gross domestic product therefore looks likely to have expanded at a much weaker pace than the 1.7% annualised rate seen in the second quarter, slipping closer towards stagnation.

“The slowdown has been accompanied by an ongoing reluctance to take on more staff compared to earlier in the year. Although some improvement was seen in the employment measure, the survey is consistent with official data showing another drop in manufacturing payroll numbers in September following the 15,000 decline seen in August.

The principal cause of weakness remains the export market, with new export orders falling for the fourth successive month, and at an advanced rate of decline, reflecting the economic downturn in the Eurozone and slower growth in previously strong markets such as China and Japan.

Alongside the worrying weakness of output and employment, the survey also showed price pressures to have risen markedly, with high oil prices in particular driving up input costs at manufacturers. Rising costs in turn fed through to higher selling prices and add to risk that consumer price inflation could pick up again in September.

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USA Employment Trends Index: "Slow job growth will continue in the short-term"

The Conference Board: Employment Trends Index

The August 2012 Employment Trends Index edged up to a modest +0.55 to 108.59 (preliminary), which is a post-recession high. This is the 13th increase in the past 15 months. The ETI has continued above the 100.00 benchmark for 19 consecutive months, after 27 consecutive months below (November 2008 through January 2011).

The ETI continues at historically low levels, below the overall average of 110.5 since January 2000. However, the reading has rebounded above the August 2008 level of 108.55, which was during the decline of the ETI into the Great Recession.

Employment Trends Index by Month The Conference Board Employment Trends Index reached another Post-Great Recession high of 108.59 in August 2012. The Great Recession cyclical low was 87.82 in May 2009. The Pre-Great Recession peak was 123.86 in March 2007.



Employment Trends Index by Year The Conference Board Employment Trends Index by Year is the average of the related months. The Great Recession low was in 2009 at 89 and the Post-Great Recession peak has been in 2012 YTD at 108 (preliminary). The Pre-Great Recession Peak was both 2006 and 2007 at 122.



“Despite this month’s rise, the Employment Trends Index has barely increased since February, suggesting that slow job growth will continue in the short-term,” said Gad Levanon, Director of Macroeconomic Research at The Conference Board. “Economic activity expanded by less than a 2 percent rate in recent months, and this pace is likely to continue through the end of the year. In such an environment, it’s difficult to foresee the economy adding much more than 100,000 jobs per month.”

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USA Weekly Unemployment Claims Continue Above 380K

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U.S. Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

The latest weekly USA Federal Government propaganda and disinformation!

In the week ending September 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 382,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 385,000. The 4-week moving average was 377,750, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised average of 375,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.6 percent for the week ending September 8, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending September 8 was 3,272,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,304,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,309,750, a decrease of 12,000 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,321,750.

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Seasonally Adjusted)

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

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Washington Jobs Propaganda: USA Unemployment Rate 8.1%

Bureau of Labor Statistics: Employment Situation Summary

Disclaimer: The following August 2012 employment and unemployment data is for United States federal government propaganda purposes only and bears no semblance to American macroeconomic reality. The disinformation has been approved by the two-party dictatorship for the pro wrestling theatrics that will ensue to deceive and/or entertain you. The commentary I provide below should be considered fiction related to the monthly Washington hogwash.

The U.S. government has issued the monthly statistical, political, and market madness called the jobs report. The August 2012 unemployment rate decreased to 8.1% and the underemployment rate was a lower 14.7%. The USA economy created a disappointing +96,000 jobs and it was the 23rd consecutive month of job gains. (This is propaganda to mask how dismal the state of America is).

Net job losses were 8.66 million during the 2008 - 2009 Great Recession. Net job gains have been 3.98 million in the subsequent 2010 - 2012 recovery. That leaves 4.68 million jobs to be restored to get the USA to back to even, to the beginning of 2008. This does not count any net increase in people entering the work force since the end of the Great Recession. (This is probably the best-case scenario).

This jobs deficit and the structural shift in the economy to lower paying jobs explains some of why 50% of 2012 college graduates are unemployed or unemployed. This explains some of the reason 1 in 7 Americans receive food stamps and why just 1 in 4 households anticipate an improved financial situation during the year ahead. (This data is mostly likely true).

USA Labor Force Participation Rate The seasonally adjusted August 2012 rate decreased slightly to 63.5%. This is the lowest since December 1981. This means the inverse, 36.5% of all Americans 16 - 64 years old were not working for various reasons. The all-time high, since 1948, was a 67.3% participation rate in January through April 2000.

USA Employment to Population Ratio The seasonally adjusted August 2012 ratio decreased to 58.3%. This means the inverse, 41.7% of Americans 16+ years old are not working for various reasons. This ratio has been bottom bouncing, very little upward or downward movement, since September 2009. The ratio has been below 60% since March 2009. The all-time high, since 1948, was 64.7% in April 2000.

USA Industrial Production Drops to 5-Month Low

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Federal Reserve Statistical Release: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production fell 1.2 percent in August after having risen 0.5 percent in July. Hurricane Isaac restrained output in the Gulf Coast region at the end of August, reducing the rate of change in total industrial production by an estimated 0.3 percentage point. Manufacturing output decreased 0.7 percent in August after having risen 0.4 percent in both June and July. Precautionary shutdowns of oil and gas rigs in the Gulf of Mexico in advance of the hurricane contributed to a drop of 1.8 percent in the output of mines for August. The output of utilities declined 3.6 percent. At 96.8 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production in August was 2.8 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for total industry moved down 1.0 percentage point to 78.2 percent, a rate 2.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972--2011) average.

USA Monthly Industrial Production

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USA Weekly Leading Index Continues Rising, at 22-Week High

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate

Lakshman Achuthan and the ECRI According to Lakshman Achuthan's interpretation of his economic indicators (the Weekly Leading Index, the Annualized Growth Rate, and other metrics), a USA Recession is here, right now. Achuthan reaffirmed this September 13, 2012. He initially predicted in September 2011 there would be an eventual economic downturn. He has continued affirming since. Achuthan had said it could take up to a year from December 2011 to prove him correct. The video link further below is Achuthan's latest comments.

USA Weekly Leading Index

USA Annualized Growth Rate

U.S. Economy Is In Recession, Achuthan Says September 13, 2012 (Bloomberg) -- Lakshman Achuthan, chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, talks about the U.S. economy. Achuthan speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." Julian Callow, chief international economist at Barclays Capital, also speaks. Watch video here.

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USA Weekly Unemployment Claims at 8-Week High

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U.S. Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

The latest weekly USA Federal Government propaganda and disinformation!

In the week ending September 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 382,000, an increase of 15,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 367,000. The 4-week moving average was 375,000, an increase of 3,250 from the previous week's revised average of 371,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.6 percent for the week ending September 1, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending September 1 was 3,283,000, a decrease of 49,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,332,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,316,500, a decrease of 7,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,324,000.

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Seasonally Adjusted)

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

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USA Second Quarter GDP a Higher 1.7%

Bureau of Economic Analysis: Gross Domestic Product

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the second estimate of Q2 2012 GDP which was +1.7% quarter over quarter, an increase from the prior (advance) Q1 2012 estimate of +2.0%, and a drop from the previous Q4 2011 of +4.1%. The total GDP reached an all-time high $15.606 trillion annualized. The GDP has increased quarter over quarter for 12 consecutive quarters, since Q3 2009. Growth rates have ranged from a near-recessionary +0.1% in Q1 2011 to a robust +4.1% in Q4 2011.

Inflation Adjustment The price index for gross domestic purchases increased to 0.8 percent in the second quarter, an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point.

USA Real GDP by Quarter (%)



USA Real GDP by Quarter ($)



Bureau of Economic Analysis Statement

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 1.7 percent in the second quarter of 2012 (that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent.

The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment and from state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The deceleration in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected decelerations in PCE, in nonresidential fixed investment, and in residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a smaller decrease in federal government spending, an acceleration in exports, and a smaller decrease in private inventory investment.

Global Economic Growth Remains Subdued

JPMorgan & Markit Global Indexes

Global All-Industry Output Index by Month



David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said: "The global economy remained in a low growth gear in August, with the weak performing manufacturing sector and stagnating world market demand providing the main drags on output growth. Modest job creation is a positive, but with demand weak and inflationary pressures beginning to rise, the performance of the global economy is likely to remain subdued in the coming months."

Global Manufacturing PMI by Month



Global Services PMI by Month

Global Services Sector Expands in August at Slower Rate

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JPMorgan and Markit Global Indexes

Global Services PMI by Month



David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said: "The global service sector continued to expand in August, offsetting some of the weakness exhibited by manufacturing. Rising cost inflation and muted new order growth suggest that the expansion in the sector will remain only modest in coming months."

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Global Manufacturing Plunge Deepens: Worldwide Job Losses Continue!

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JPMorgan & Markit Global Indexes

JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI by Month



David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said, "The August PMIs point to a further modest acceleration in the rate of contraction of global industry, as the sector is buffeted by rising headwinds in a number of key economic regions and falling levels of international trade. The labour market is still holding up better than the activity indicators, but this could be threatened as signs of excess capacity become more visible.”"

Worldwide Job Losses Continue "August saw global manufacturing employment decline for the second successive month, following a 31-month period of sustained job creation. Marginal losses were reported in both developed and emerging nations."

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USA Services Sector Expands in August

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ISM: Monthly USA NMI

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI) by Month



Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee said, "The NMI registered 53.7 percent in August, 1.1 percentage points higher than the 52.6 percent registered in July. This indicates continued growth this month at a slighter faster rate in the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index registered 55.6 percent, which is 1.6 percentage points lower than the 57.2 percent reported in July, reflecting growth for the 37th consecutive month. The New Orders Index decreased by 0.6 percentage point to 53.7 percent. The Employment Index increased by 4.5 percentage points to 53.8 percent, indicating growth in employment after one month of contraction. The Prices Index increased 9.4 percentage points to 64.3 percent, indicating substantially higher month-over-month prices when compared to July. According to the NMI, 10 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in August. Respondents' comments continue to be mixed, and for the most part reflect uncertainty about business conditions and the economy.".

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI) by Year

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USA Manufacturing Contracts in August to 37-Month Low!

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ISM: Monthly USA PMI

ISM Manufacturing Index (PMI) by Month



Bradley Holcomb, Chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee said, "The PMI registered 49.6 percent, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point from July's reading of 49.8 percent, indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector for the third consecutive month. This is also the lowest reading for the PMI™ since July 2009. The New Orders Index registered 47.1 percent, a decrease of 0.9 percentage point from July, indicating contraction in new orders for the third consecutive month. The Production Index registered 47.2 percent, a decrease of 4.1 percentage points and indicating contraction in production for the first time since May 2009. The Employment Index remained in growth territory at 51.6 percent, but registered its lowest reading since November 2009 when the Employment Index registered 51 percent. The Prices Index increased 14.5 percentage points from its July reading to 54 percent. Comments from the panel generally reflect a slowdown in orders and demand, with continuing concern over the uncertain state of global economies.".

ISM Manufacturing Index (PMI) by Year

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