Tuesday, March 20, 2012

USA 2011 GDP Estimated at +1.7%, Drops from 2010

USA GDP 2011 The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the second estimate of 2011 GDP which was +1.7% YoY, unchanged from the advance estimate. The total GDP was revised slightly upwards to $15.094 trillion, from the advance estimate $15.088 trillion. This is a drop from the 2010 GDP of +3.0% YoY. The Great Recession GDPs were -0.3% and -3.5% in 2008 and 2009, respectively. There will be a third and estimate announced in March.

Where is the USA Economy Going? The Big Question: where is the USA economy headed? Three scenarios are usually discussed: 1) a double dip recession whereby the GDP will turn negative yet again with a higher unemployment rate, 2) the economy will continue "bottom bouncing" with slow to very slow growth and a continuing relatively high unemployment rate, or 3) the bottom is in and GDP growth will accelerate and the unemployment rate will begin to decrease. Scenario 2) with slow to very slow economic growth and a continuing relatively high unemployment rate appears to be the most likely scenario for 2012. The World Bank estimates the USA 2012 GDP at +2.2%. The OECD estimate is +2.0%, the IMF is +1.8%, and The Conference Board is +1.8%.

USA Real GDP % by Year (seasonally adjusted at annual rate) The peak before the Great Recession was +3.5% in 2004. A downward trend began in 2005 bottoming at -3.5% in 2009. The recovery has been +3.0% in 2010 and +1.7% in 2011.

USA Real GDP $ by Year (seasonally adjusted at annual rate) The pre-recession peak was $14.292 trillion in 2008, followed by a Great Recession drop in 2009 to $13.939 trillion. The recovery has been $14.527 trillion in 2010 and $15.094 trillion in 2011, an all-time high.

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