Friday, November 4, 2011

Global Economic Growth at Post-Recession Low! (Chart) "Modest increase in economic activity"

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Global All-Industry Output Index by JPMorgan


Statement by JPMorgan October PMI data signalled that global private sector output and new business expanded at the weakest rates since the recovery began in August 2009. At 51.4, down from 52.0 in September, the JPMorgan Global All-Industry Output Index signalled only a modest increase in economic activity.

Trend The Global PMI Output has decreased 5 of the past 8 months. The short-term trend, intermediate-term trend, and long-term trend continue downwards.

Cycle History The JPMorgan Global All-Industry Output Index reached a Post-Great Recession peak of 59.1% in February 2011. The current October reading of 51.4% is a Post-great Recession low and lower than the November 2009 reading of 51.7%.. The All-Industry Output Index is a percentage - not a total. More about the Index below the chart.

Chart (Global All-Industry Output Index) Below is a chart of the of the JPMorgan Global All-Industry Output Index from August 2009 through the latest month reported. The Index has been greater than 50, indicating global output is expanding, since August 2009, for 27 consecutive months. The Index reached a first peak in April 2010 at 57.7%, which was a 34-month high. A Post-Great Recession peak was subsequently reached in February 2011 at 59.1%.


Commentary Global economic expansion continued in October 2011 for the 27th consecutive month, but the growth rate is a Post-Recession low. The key points in the current report include (Direction, Rate of Change):

● Output expanding, slower rate
● New Orders expanding, slower rate
● Input Prices rising, slower rate
● Employment rising, change of direction

Global and USA Reports For October 2011, the various indexes are reported reviewed on this blog and Baidu Planet. The key points in the current reports include (Direction, Rate of Change):
● USA Manufacturing PMI, expanding at a slower rate
● USA Non-Manufacturing (Services) Index, expanding at a slower rate
● China Manufacturing PMI, expanding at a faster rate
● Global Manufacturing PMI, stagnant (50.0) from contracting
● Global Non-Manufacturing (Services) Index, expanding at a slower rate
● Global All-Industry Output (Manufacturing + Services), expanding at a slower rate

National Data
● Growth of all-industry output eased in the developed markets, but accelerated to a three-month high across emerging nations
● Rates of expansion slowed in both the US manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors
● Downturns in the Eurozone manufacturing and services deepened.
Japan saw all-industry activity rise for the first time since February and at the steepest pace in its series history
● All-industry output growth accelerated to a five-month peak in China.

Segment Data
● New Orders Manufacturing output and new orders both fell for the third month running.
● Employment October data signalled an increase in all-industry staffing levels, with modest jobs growth reported by both manufacturers and service providers.
● Backlogs of Work Outstanding business fell at both manufacturers and service providers.
● Input Prices Cost inflation eased to a 15-month low in October.

About The Global Manufacturing & Services PMI (Global All-Industry Output Index) The Global Report on Manufacturing & Services is compiled by Markit based on the results of surveys covering over 11,000 purchasing executives in almost 30 countries. Together these countries account for an estimated 86% of global GDP. Questions are asked about real events and are not opinion based. Data are presented in the form of diffusion indices, where an index reading above 50.0 indicates an increase in the variable since the previous month and below 50.0 a decrease.
Data sources: Country % share of global GDP
United States 28.6
Japan 12.3
China 7.4
Germany 5.0
United Kingdom 4.2
France 3.7
Italy 2.8
Brazil 2.2
India 2.2
Canada 2.1
South Korea 1.9
Spain 1.8
Australia 1.4
Netherlands 1.1
Russia 1.0
Turkey 0.9
Taiwan 0.8
Switzerland 0.7
Poland 0.6
Hong Kong 0.6
Austria 0.5
South Africa 0.5
Denmark 0.4
Greece 0.4
Israel 0.4
Singapore 0.4
Ireland 0.3
Czech Republic 0.2
New Zealand 0.2
Hungary 0.1

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. is a leading global financial services firm with assets of $803 billion and operations in more than 50 countries. The firm is a leader in investment banking, financial services for consumers and businesses, financial transaction processing, investment management, private banking and private equity. A component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, JPMorgan Chase is headquartered in New York and serves more than 30 million consumer customers nationwide, and many of the world’s most prominent corporate, institutional and government clients. Information about JPMorgan Chase is available on the internet at http://www.jpmorganchase.com/.

Markit Economics is a specialist compiler of business surveys and economic indices, including the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) series, which is now available for 32 countries and key regions including the Eurozone and BRIC. The PMIs have become the most closely-watched business surveys in the world, favoured by central banks, financial markets and business decision makers for their ability to provide up-to-date, accurate and often unique monthly indicators of economic trends. To learn more go to www.markit.com/economics.

Founded in 1915, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) is the largest supply management organization in the world as well as one of the most respected. ISM's mission is to lead the supply management profession through its standards of excellence, research, promotional activities and education. ISM's membership base includes approximately 40,000 supply management professionals with a network of domestic and international affiliated associations. ISM is a not-for-profit institute that provides opportunities for the promotion of the profession and the expansion of professional skills and knowledge.

The International Federation of Purchasing and Supply Management (IFPSM) is the union of 42 national purchasing associations worldwide. Within this circle, about 200,000 purchasing professionals can be reached. IFPSM is a non-political, independent and non-profit oriented international organisation, registered in Aarau, Switzerland. IFPSM facilitates the development and distribution of knowledge to elevate and advance the procurement profession, thus favourably impacting the standard of living of citizens worldwide through improved business practices.

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