Tuesday, December 14, 2010

USA November Retail & Food Sales at 36-Month High! (Chart) *Near November 2007 peak*


U.S. Census Bureau: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services

USA Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services at 36-Month High in November

Official Statement by U.S. Census Bureau (December 14, 2010) The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $378.7 billion, an increase of 0.8 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, and 7.7 percent (±0.7%) above November 2009. Total sales for the September through November 2010 period were up 7.8 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The September to October 2010 percent change was revised from +1.2 percent (±0.5%) to +1.7 percent (±0.2%).
Cycle History USA monthly sales for retail & food services in November of $378.706 billion (advance estimate) were down just -$1.3 billion and -0.33% from the cyclical peak of $379.960 billion in November 2007. The November sales (advance estimate) were up +$43.1 billion and +12.8% from the cyclical bottom of $335.614 billion in December 2008. Therefore, current November sales are much closer to the peak than the trough.

Trend USA monthly sales for retail & food services are on a strong uptrend. Sales were up +$3.1 billion and +0.8% from October and increased for the 5th consecutive month. Sales have increased 9 of the 11 months in 2010 for a net increase of $24.6 billion for the year. The November sales were up a strong +$26.9 billion and +7.7% YoY from November 2009. The November sales continue above the 12-month moving average of $364.4 billion and have remained above since August 2009 (16 consecutive months). Monthly sales have also continued above the 24-month and 36-month moving averages of $353.5B and $359.3B for 11 and 9 months, respectively. Both the 12-month and 24-month moving averages are uptrending and the 36-month moving average is beginning to level off. (The 12-month, 24-month, and 36-month moving averages charts are not shown on this page).

Chart Below is a 37 month chart of USA sales for retail & food services from November 2007 (the cyclical peak) through the latest month reported, November 2010. USA. Sales peaked in November 2007 at $379.960 billion, began downtrending in July 2008 at an increasing rate. The bottom was in December 2008 at $335.614 billion. The current November sales (advance estimate) of $378.706 billion is both the short-term and intermediate-term highs and very near the cyclical high.

Commentary This is not just encouraging data, but incredible data, that the November sales for retail and food services was $378.706B. This is not only a short-term high and intermediate-term high, but very near the cyclical peak of $379.960B in November 2007, which was before the Great Recession. Therefore, USA sales are well off the cyclical bottom of $335.614B in December 2008. Since consumer spending, consumption is a significant portion of the USA economy (60%+ of GDP), this upsurge should strengthen USA economic (GDP) growth. Along with other USA, and Global, economic data for November reviewed in previous posts, the recovery has strengthened after the Summer Slump. USA Q4 economic activity and growth (GDP) is looking very strong, compared to previous estimates.

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