Thursday, July 8, 2010

IMF Update: Global Recovery Continues (Chart)


World Economy

World Economy Recovering Better Than Expected, But Downside Risks Have Risen Sharply

The IMF has issued an partial update of their World Economic Outlook for 2010 and 2011 on the chart below. The previous full World Economic Outlook was in April 2010 and is reviewed here. The next full update will be in October. Overall the updated, partial outlook is positive but "renewed financial turbulence and euro area problems cloud the outlook".

Overall the 2010 outlook for the world and many nations is better in 2010 than 2011 and better for the first-half of 2010 than the second-half of 2010. Therefore, a slowdown is occurring for the second-half of 2010 and a further slowdown for 2011 compared to 2010.

World GDP 2010 is increased to 4.6% from 4.2% and 2011 is unchanged at 4.3%.
Advanced Economies GDP 2010 is increased to 2.6% from 2.3% and 2011 is unchanged at 2.4%.
Emerging & Developing Economies GDP 2010 is increased to 6.8% from 6.3% and 2011 is decreased to 6.4% from 6.5%.
USA GDP 2010 is increased to 3.3% from 3.1% and 2011 is increased to 2.9% from 2.6%.
China GDP 2010 is increased to 10.5% from 10.0% and 2011 is decreased to 9.6% from 9.9%.
Euro Area GDP 2010 is unchanged at 1.0% and 2011 is decreased to 1.3% from 1.5%.
Japan GDP 2010 is increased to 2.4% from 1.9% and 2011 is decreased to 1.8% from 2.0%.
UK GDP 2010 is decreased to 1.2% from 1.3% and 2011 is decreased to 2.1% from 2.5%.

On fiscal policies, notably UK, Japan, USA, and the Euro Area, "the overarching policy challenge is to restore financial market confidence without choking the recovery".

Of note is these projections are for the full year 2010. For advanced economies the 2010 first-half projection was higher than the 2010 second-half, signalling a slowdown for the remainder of 2010.

World Recovery Continues, But Risks Increase, Says IMF (IMF)
IMF Lifts 2010 GDP Forecast, Flags Europe Debt Risk (CNBC)
The Global Recovery Is Progressing; The Economic Bottom Is In (BoomDoomEconomy) April 2010
Turbulence won't upend recovery, IMF says (MarketWatch)
IMF Raises 2010 Growth Estimate, Sees Greater Risks (Bloomberg)
IMF Sees Rising Risks Slowing Pace of World Recovery (WSJ)

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