USA Weekly Leading Index at 2-Year High!

♦♦♦

ECRI Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate

USA Weekly Leading Index

Current Reading: 130.6 (+0.1)
Trend: Highest Since April 15, 2011 (131.7)
Post-Recession High: 135.2 (4-30-10)
Great Recession Low: 105.4 (3-6-09)
Pre-Recession Peak: 136.4 (1-11-08)

USA Annualized Growth Rate

Current Reading: +6.8% (+0.2)
Trend: Highest Since February 22, 2013 (+6.9%)
Post-Recession High: +27.7% (10-9-09)
Great Recession Low: -29.5% (12-5-08)
Pre-Recession Peak: +6.6% (5-18-07)

(Business Insider) A Stock Market Trend Has Developed That Coincided With The Last 3 Recessions In a new report, ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan reiterates his thesis that the U.S. economy is in a recession.

This is a bar chart of S&P 500 operating earnings growth going back a quarter of a century on a consistent basis, as we understand from S&P. Others can choose their own definitions of operating earnings, but this is the data from S&P. In this chart, the height of the red bar indicates the number of consecutive quarters of negative earnings growth.



A Stock Market Trend Has Developed That Coincided With The Last 3 Recessions

ACHUTHAN: Look At These Charts And Tell Me We're Not In Recession

Lakshman Achuthan and the ECRI According to Lakshman Achuthan's interpretation of his economic indicators (the Weekly Leading Index, the Annualized Growth Rate, and other metrics), a USA Recession is here, right now. He initially predicted in September 2011 there would be an eventual economic downturn. He has continued affirming since. Achuthan had said it could take up to a year from December 2011 to prove him correct. In March 2013, he has presented the report noted above.

♦♦♦

USA Weekly Unemployment Claims at 6-Week Low

♦♦♦

U.S. Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Seasonally Adjusted)

Seasonally Adjusted Data:
Current Claims: 339,000 and -16,000
Trend: 6-week low
2013 weekly average: 352,000 (rounded)
2012 weekly average: 375,000 (rounded)

U.S. Department of Labor... In the week ending April 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 339,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 355,000. The 4-week moving average was 357,500, a decrease of 4,500 from the previous week's revised average of 362,000.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.3 percent for the week ending April 13, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending April 13 was 3,000,000, a decrease of 93,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,093,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,071,750, a decrease of 17,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,089,250.

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

♦♦♦

USA Weekly Unemployment Claims at 19-Week High

♦♦♦

U.S. Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Seasonally Adjusted)

Seasonally Adjusted Data:
Current Claims: 385,000 and +28,000
Trend: 19-week high
2013 weekly average: 353,000 (rounded)
2012 weekly average: 375,000 (rounded)

U.S. Department of Labor... In the week ending March 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 385,000, an increase of 28,000 from the previous week's unrevised figure of 357,000. The 4-week moving average was 354,250, an increase of 11,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 343,000.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.4 percent for the week ending March 23, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending March 23 was 3,063,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,071,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,067,250, a decrease of 10,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,077,750.

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

♦♦♦

USA Leading Economic Index at Another Post-Recession High!

The Conference Board: USA Monthly Leading Index

USA Monthly Leading Economic Index
Current Index: 94.8
Post-Recession High: 94.8 (February 2013)



Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: “This month’s increase in the U.S. LEI – the third consecutive – was widespread and driven by a majority of its components. Even though consumer expectations and manufacturing new orders remain weak, the economy continues to expand slowly, and may be developing some resilience against headwinds from, for example, federal spending cuts due to improving residential construction and labor market conditions. Meanwhile, the U.S. CEI posted a small gain following January’s sharp drop due to a decline in personal income.”

USA Monthly Composite Indexes



Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: “The U.S. economy is growing slowly now, and with this reading increases hope that it may pick up some momentum in the second half of the year. However, this latest report does not yet capture the recent effects of sequestration, which could dampen the pickup in GDP.”

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $IWM $MACRO