USA Weekly Unemployment Claims Drop to 344K

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U.S. Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Seasonally Adjusted)

Seasonally Adjusted Data:
Current Claims: 344,000 and -22,000
Trend: 2-week low
2013 weekly average: 354,000 (rounded)
2012 weekly average: 375,000 (rounded)

U.S. Department of Labor... In the week ending February 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 344,000, a decrease of 22,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 366,000. The 4-week moving average was 355,000, a decrease of 6,750 from the previous week's revised average of 361,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.4 percent for the week ending February 16, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's revised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending February 16 was 3,074,000, a decrease of 91,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,165,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,155,000, a decrease of 35,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,190,500.

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

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USA Manufacturing Expands, Jobs Increase

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Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI

The Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index PMI) signalled further expansion of the U.S. manufacturing sector in February, although the rate of growth slowed slightly on January’s nine-month peak. At 55.2, down from 55.8, the ‘flash’ PMI reading, which is based on around 85% of usual monthly replies, continued to suggest a strong improvement in overall manufacturing business conditions.

Markit Manufacturing Index (PMI) by Month
Current Index: 55.2 (Flash Estimate)
PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction



Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit said: “U.S. manufacturers reported the largest monthly rise in production for almost two years in February, suggesting that the economy is set to rebound from the weak patch seen late last year and allaying fears of a double-dip recession."

“The domestic market is providing the main stimulus to growth, but weak demand in other countries caused export orders to fall slightly for the first time since October."

“The disappointing export performance led overall growth of order books to slow slightly, which in turn caused increasing numbers of manufacturers to think twice about hiring extra staff. Employment rose in February, but the rate of job creation slowed and remained weaker than policymakers would like to see."

“While the survey therefore paints an encouraging picture of the manufacturing sector, helping to drive a return to growth for the economy as a whole in the first quarter of this year, firms still need to see greater confidence in the longer-term economic outlook for employment numbers to pick up again.”

USA Manufacturing Jobs Increase "Reflective of greater output requirements, companies hired additional staff in February. Manufacturing employment rose solidly, albeit at its weakest rate since last November."

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USA Weekly Leading Index at 6-Week Low

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate

USA Weekly Leading Index

Current Reading: 129.1 (-0.6)
Post-Recession High: 135.2 (4-30-10)
Great Recession Low: 105.4 (3-6-09)
Pre-Recession Peak: 136.4 (1-11-08)

USA Annualized Growth Rate

Current Reading: +7.6% (-0.8)
Post-Recession High: +27.7% (10-9-09)
Great Recession Low: -29.5% (12-5-08)
Pre-Recession Peak: +6.6% (5-18-07)

Lakshman Achuthan and the ECRI According to Lakshman Achuthan's interpretation of his economic indicators (the Weekly Leading Index, the Annualized Growth Rate, and other metrics), a USA Recession is here, right now. He initially predicted in September 2011 there would be an eventual economic downturn. He has continued affirming since. Achuthan had said it could take up to a year from December 2011 to prove him correct. The video below is Achuthan's latest comments.

Recession Underway November 29, 2012 (Bloomberg) -- Indicators used to determine official U.S. recession dates have been falling since mid-year. Lakshman Achuthan, chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, talks about the U.S. economy. Achuthan speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)

Watch video here.

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USA Weekly Unemployment Claims Rise to 362K

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U.S. Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Seasonally Adjusted)

Seasonally Adjusted Data:
Current Claims: 362,000 and +20,000
Trend: 2-week high
2013 weekly average: 355,000
2012 weekly average: 375,000

(U.S. Department of Labor) In the week ending February 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 362,000, an increase of 20,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 342,000. The 4-week moving average was 360,750, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week's revised average of 352,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.4 percent for the week ending February 9, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending February 9 was 3,148,000, an increase of 11,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,137,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,186,250, a decrease of 6,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,193,000.

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

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USA Leading Economic Index at Post-Recession High!

The Conference Board: USA Monthly Leading Index

USA Monthly Leading Economic Index
Current Index: 94.1
Post-Recession High: 94.1 (January 2013)



Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: “The U.S. LEI rose again in January, pointing to a slow but continued expansion in economic activity in the near term. Despite continued weakness in manufacturers’ new orders and consumer expectations, improvements in housing permits and financial components helped boost the LEI in January. Meanwhile, the CEI also advanced in January, despite the slight decline in industrial production. Both the LEI and CEI have experienced widespread gains among their components over the past six months.”

USA Monthly Composite Indexes



Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: “The indicators point to an underlying economy that remains relatively sound but sluggish. Credit use has picked up, driven in part by relatively strong demand for auto loans. The biggest positive factor is housing. The housing market is now at twice the level reached during its recessionary lows, and will likely continue to improve through the spring, delivering some growth momentum to the labor market and the overall economy. The biggest risk, however, is the adverse impact of cuts in federal spending.”

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USA Industrial Production Just Below Post-Recession High

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Federal Reserve Statistical Release: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

(Federal Reserve) - Industrial production edged down 0.1 percent in January after having risen 0.4 percent in December. In January, manufacturing output decreased 0.4 percent following upwardly revised gains of 1.1 percent in December and 1.7 percent in November.

For the fourth quarter as a whole, manufacturing production is now estimated to have advanced 1.9 percent at an annual rate; previously, the increase was reported to have been 0.2 percent.

In January, the output of utilities rose 3.5 percent, as demand for heating was boosted by temperatures that fell closer to their seasonal norms; the production at mines declined 1.0 percent. At 98.6 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production in January was 2.1 percent above its level of a year earlier. The capacity utilization rate for total industry decreased in January to 79.1 percent, a rate that is 1.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972 - 2012) average.

USA Industrial Production Index by Month

Current Index: 98.6212 (-0.10)
Post-Recession High: 98.7187 (December 2012)
Great Recession Low: 83.4577 (June 2009)
Pre-Recession Peak: 100.7420 (December 2007)

USA Industrial Production Index Trends
3-Month Moving Average: 98.6 (+0.6)
6-Month Moving Average: 97.8 (+0.1)
12-Month Moving Average: 97.5 (+0.2)
24-Month Moving Average: 95.8 (+0.3)
36-Month Moving Average: 94.0 (+0.3)

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USA Weekly Leading Index Continues Below Peak

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate

USA Weekly Leading Index

Current Reading: 129.6 (-0.6)
Post-Recession High: 135.2 (4-30-10)
Great Recession Low: 105.4 (3-6-09)
Pre-Recession Peak: 136.4 (1-11-08)

USA Annualized Growth Rate

Current Reading: +8.3% (-0.6)
Post-Recession High: +27.7% (10-9-09)
Great Recession Low: -29.5% (12-5-08)
Pre-Recession Peak: +6.6% (5-18-07)

Lakshman Achuthan and the ECRI According to Lakshman Achuthan's interpretation of his economic indicators (the Weekly Leading Index, the Annualized Growth Rate, and other metrics), a USA Recession is here, right now. He initially predicted in September 2011 there would be an eventual economic downturn. He has continued affirming since. Achuthan had said it could take up to a year from December 2011 to prove him correct. The video below is Achuthan's latest comments.

Recession Underway November 29, 2012 (Bloomberg) -- Indicators used to determine official U.S. recession dates have been falling since mid-year. Lakshman Achuthan, chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, talks about the U.S. economy. Achuthan speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)

Watch video here.

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USA Labor and Employment Ratios Continue at Low Levels

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Bureau of Labor Statistics: Employment Situation Summary

USA Labor Force Participation Rate
Seasonally Adjusted
Current Rate: 63.6% (no change)
Trend: Below 64% since January 2012
Recent Low: 63.5% (August 2012)
All-Time High: 67.3% (January through April 2000)

USA Employment to Population Ratio
Seasonally Adjusted
Current Rate: 58.6% (no change)
Trend: Below 60% since March 2009
Recent Lows: 58.2% (November 2010, June 2011, July 2011)
All-Time High: 64.7% (April 2000)



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3.2 Million USA Jobs Remaining to Be Restored from Great Recession

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Bureau of Labor Statistics: Employment Situation Summary

Using the government's seasonally adjusted data, net job losses were 8.67 million during the 2008 - 2009 Great Recession. Net job gains have been 5.45 million in the subsequent 2010 - 2013 recovery. That leaves 3.22 million jobs to be restored to get the USA to back to even, to the beginning of 2008 and before the Great Recession. This does not count any net increase in people entering the work force since the end of the Great Recession. This is probably the best-case scenario.

In the first chart below, for the current year 2013, jobs data has been extrapolated based on the number of months reported to obtain an annualized net gain (loss).

USA Jobs Gains (Losses) by Year



USA Jobs Gains (Losses) by Month



USA Private Sector Jobs Gains (Losses) by Month



USA Public Sector Jobs Gains (Losses) by Month



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USA Unemployment Rate Rises to 7.9%

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Bureau of Labor Statistics: Employment Situation Summary

(Bureau of Labor Statistics) Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 157,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 7.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Retail trade, construction, health care, and wholesale trade added jobs over the month.

USA Unemployment Rate by Month



USA Underemployment Rate by Month



USA Total Unemployed by Month



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USA GDP Contracts -0.1% in Fourth Quarter 2012

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Bureau of Economic Analysis: Gross Domestic Product

(Bureau of Economic Analysis) Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- decreased at an annual rate of 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012 (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.

The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 4 and the "Comparisons of Revisions to GDP" on page 5). The "second" estimate for the fourth quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on February 28, 2013.

The decrease in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected negative contributions from private inventory investment, federal government spending, and exports that were partly offset by positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

The downturn in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected downturns in private inventory investment, in federal government spending, in exports, and in state and local government spending that were partly offset by an upturn in nonresidential fixed investment, a larger decrease in imports, and an acceleration in PCE.

USA GDP Change by Quarter (QoQ %)



USA Real GDP Change by Quarter (QoQ %): Components



USA Real GDP Totals by Quarter ($)



Real GDP Component Totals by Quarter ($)



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USA Employment Trends Index Near Post-Recession High

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The Conference Board: Employment Trends Index

(The Conference Board) "The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) edged down in January. The index now stands at 109.38, down from 109.47 in December. The January figure is 2.7 percent higher than a year ago."

Employment Trends Index by Month

“Despite the dip in January, the Employment Trends Index continues to signal a moderate improvement in the labor market,” said Gad Levanon, Director of Macroeconomic Research at The Conference Board. “However, employment growth has outpaced economic growth in recent months, and the ETI suggests that this rapid pace of improvement in hiring may not continue in the coming months.”

Employment Trends Index by Year

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USA Weekly Unemployment Claims Drop to 341K

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U.S. Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

Seasonally Adjusted Data:
Current Claims: 341,000 and -27,000
Trend: 3-week low
2013 weekly average: 353,000
2012 weekly average: 375,000

(U.S. Department of Labor) In the week ending February 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 341,000, a decrease of 27,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 368,000. The 4-week moving average was 352,500, an increase of 1,500 from the previous week's revised average of 351,000.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.4 percent for the week ending February 2, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending February 2 was 3,114,000, a decrease of 130,000 from the preceding week's unrevised level of 3,244,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,187,250, a decrease of 28,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,216,000.

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Seasonally Adjusted)

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

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Global Economy Expands, Worldwide Employment Increases

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JPMorgan & Markit Global Indexes

Global All-Industry Output Index by Month
PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction



David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said: ""The global economy made a solid start to 2013, with both the manufacturing and service sectors seeing output rise. Output is being supported by the pillars of rising new business inflows, work on pipeline contracts and rising employment. This should help sustain the expansion during the opening quarter, even if growth remains below trend initially."

Global All-Industry, Manufacturing, Services PMI Indexes by Month
PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction



Worldwide Employment Increases "The US saw the most substantial increase in payroll numbers of the nations covered by the surveys, with the rate of expansion in workforce levels in the US hitting a near seven-and-a-half year peak. Employment also continued to rise in China, India, Brazil and Ireland. There was a return to jobs growth in the UK, while Japanese payroll numbers showed little change over the month. In contrast, the Eurozone saw further job losses, with reductions reported in each of the big-four euro area nations."

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Global Services Expand, Worldwide Employment Rises

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JPMorgan and Markit Global Indexes

Global Services PMI by Month
PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction



David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said: "The global service sector continued to expand at the start of 2013, adding to the positive news coming out of the manufacturing surveys last week. Services employment also posted a further solid gain, a positive bellwether for confidence among companies. Rising employment should also help shore up household demand in the coming months."

Worldwide Employment Rises "Job creation was recorded for the fourth month running in January. Moreover, the rate of growth in payroll numbers was the fastest since October 2007. The only nations to report job losses were France, Italy, Spain and Hong Kong. The US saw the sharpest increase, with employment rising to the greatest extent in almost seven years."

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Global Manufacturing Grows, Worldwide Jobs Stabilize

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JPMorgan & Markit Global Indexes

JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI by Month
PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction

David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan, said: "The global manufacturing sector has made a bright start to 2013, with the PMI indicating that output growth recovered to a ten-month high following the soft patch seen during much of last year. The continued upward trend in PMI orders suggests the PMI, and global production growth, may strengthen further in the next few months."

Worldwide Jobs Stabilize "Manufacturing employment rose marginally for the second month running in January, mainly reflecting a solid increase in US staffing levels."

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USA Services Sector Expands at Slower Rate, Employment Rises

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ISM: Monthly USA NMI

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI) by Month
NMI > 50.0 is expansion, NMI < 50.0 is contraction



Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee said, "The NMI registered 55.2 percent in January, 0.5 percentage point lower than the seasonally adjusted 55.7 percent registered in December. This indicates continued growth at a slightly slower rate in the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index registered 56.4 percent, which is 4.4 percentage points lower than the seasonally adjusted 60.8 percent reported in December, reflecting growth for the 42nd consecutive month. The New Orders Index decreased by 3.9 percentage points to 54.4 percent, and the Employment Index increased 2.2 percentage points to 57.5 percent, indicating growth in employment for the sixth consecutive month. The Prices Index increased 1.9 percentage points to 58 percent, indicating prices increased at a faster rate in January when compared to December. According to the NMI™, eight non-manufacturing industries reported growth in January. Respondents' comments are mixed about the economy and business conditions; however, the majority of respondents are optimistic about the overall direction."

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI) by Year
NMI > 50.0 is expansion, NMI < 50.0 is contraction



American Services Sector Employment Rises "Employment activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in January for the sixth consecutive month. ISM's Non-Manufacturing Employment Index registered 57.5 percent, which reflects an increase of 2.2 percentage points when compared to the seasonally adjusted 55.3 percent registered in December. Nine industries reported increased employment, seven industries reported decreased employment, and two industries reported unchanged employment compared to December. Comments from respondents include: "Hiring more sales and marketing staff" and "Open and new positions were filled."

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