Boom Doom Economy

World Bank Projects Global Economic Slowdown: Further Downside Risks

2012-01-29T11:03:00.000-08:00

=> For Latest Updates, Visit OspreyFlyer.com <=

Global Economic Prospects 2012: Uncertainties and Vulnerabilities

High Income Countries GDP by Year The World will outpace the higher income countries and areas from 2011 through 2013. The USA is forecast to outperform the OECD, Japan, and the Euro Area from 2011 through 2013. However, the USA will underperform the World average. Japan is forecast to dip into a -0.9% recession in 2011 as a result of the catastrophic earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear crisis. The Euro Area is forecast to drop into a recession (-0.3%) for 2012.

BRIC Countries GDP by Year China continues to lead BRIC and the World, but at a slowing pace. India continues in second with Brazil overtaking Russia. All 4 BRIC countries are projected to outperform the World average.

World GDP by Year Developing Countries continue to lead the World and High Income Countries.

Global Economic Prospects 2012 (Jan 13, 2012) Beijing, January 18, 2012 -- Developing countries should prepare for further downside risks, as Euro Area debt problems and weakening growth in several big emerging economies are dimming global growth prospects, says the World Bank in the newly-released Global Economic Prospects (GEP) 2012.

=> For Additional Detail and Coverage, Visit OspreyFlyer.com <=

Visit Transcend.ws Environment, Future, Humanity, Reality, Technology, Universe

2012-01-15T16:57:00.001-08:00

▲▲▲

Transcend.ws

Visit Transcend.ws

● Environment, Future, Humanity, Reality, Technology, Universe ●

▲▲▲

Visit OspreyFlyer.com Banking, Economy, Markets, Technology

2011-12-20T19:45:00.001-08:00

♦♦♦

OspreyFlyer.com

Visit OspreyFlyer.com

● Banking, Economy, Markets, Technology ●

♦♦♦

Boom Doom Economy Has Moved! (Link) Visit new website!

2011-11-21T22:40:00.001-08:00

♦♦♦

Boom Doom Economy has moved to http://OspreyFlyer.com

Boom Doom Economy Has Moved to a New Website! Boom Doom Economy has merged with Osprey Flyer and moved to a new website http://OspreyFlyer.com. All new posts will be published there. The prior posts will remain archived here at the old website.

OspreyFlyer.com

^v^ ^v^ ^v^

USA Monthly Leading Economic Index Continues Rising! (Chart) "Risk of economic downturn has receded"

2011-11-18T12:39:00.001-08:00

♦♦♦

The Conference Board: USA Monthly Leading Index

Official Statement by The Conference Board The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.9 percent in October to 117.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in September, and a 0.3 percent increase in August.

Commenting on the USA LEI Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: “The October rebound of the LEI - largely due to the sharp pick-up in housing permits - suggests that the risk of an economic downturn has receded. Improving consumer expectations, stock markets, and labor market indicators also contributed to this month’s gain in the LEI as did the continuing positive contributions from the interest rate spread. The CEI also rose somewhat, led by higher industrial production and employment.”

Trend The short-term trend continues upwards, the LEI has increased for 6 consecutive months. The intermediate-term trend (6-month moving average) has continued upwards since April 2009, for 30 consecutive months. The long-term trend (12-month moving average) trends also continues upwards and has since 2009. The October 2011 increase is the 29th increase in the past 31 months (since the March 2009 Great Recession cyclical low of 97.9).

Cycle History The Leading Economic Index for October 2011 (preliminary) is at a Post-Great Recession cyclical high of 117.4, which exceeds the previous high in September 2011 of 116.3 (revised). The Great Recession cyclical low was 97.9 in March 2009.

Monthly Leading Economic Index (Chart) Below is a chart of the The Conference Board LEI, including the March 2009 Great Recession cyclical low of 97.9 through the latest month reported.

Commentary The October 2011 Leading Economic Index (preliminary) continues encouraging, grinds higher, and is at a Post-Great Recession cyclical high of 117.4. "This month’s strength in the LEI was driven by strong positive contributions from building permits, the interest rate spread, and stock market and employment indicators." The USA Monthly LEI has come a long way from the March 2009 cyclical low of 97.9 (see chart above).

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. include:

Average weekly hours, manufacturing

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance

Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials

Index of supplier deliveries – vendor performance

Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods

Building permits, new private housing units

Stock prices, 500 common stocks

Money supply, M2

Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds

Index of consumer expectations

About The Conference Board The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

More Charts and Analysis!

● Boom Doom Economy

USA and Global Economic News and Analysis

● Apple Digest

Apple (AAPL) financial performance and stock charts

● Google Investor

Google (GOOG) financial performance and stock charts

● Osprey Flyer

Largest USA tech companies
Microsoft (MSFT) financial performance charts

Intel (INTC) financial performance charts

VMware (VMW) financial performance charts

SalesForce.com (CRM) financial performance charts

Rackspace (RAX) financial performance charts

Cisco (CSCO) financial performance charts

Oracle (ORCL) financial performance charts
HP (HPQ) financial performance charts
IBM (IBM) financial performance charts

● Financial Controls

USA failed and problem banks

Largest USA banks

Federal Reserve statistical releases
FDIC quarterly banking profile

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) financial performance charts

Citigroup (C) financial performance charts

Goldman Sachs (GS) financial performance charts

Wells Fargo (WFC) financial performance charts

Bank of America (BAC) financial performance charts

Morgan Stanley (MS) financial performance charts

● Matrix Markets

S&P 500 (SPX) charts and review

● Baidu Planet

China economic, Internet, and technology news

Baidu (BIDU) financial performance and stock charts

● Neo Solomon

Select news regarding the Universe, Earth, Humanity, Future

Visit Osprey Port News Network!

Apple, Google, Baidu, China, technology, financial system, stocks, markets, economy, science, environment, future

Follow Boom Doom Economy (@BoomDoomEconomy) on Twitter!

USA and Global Economic News and Analysis

♦♦♦

USA Weekly Leading Index Dips to 3-Week Low (Charts, Videos) Achuthan: "Recession call intact"

2011-11-18T08:08:00.001-08:00

♦♦♦

ECRI Economic Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate

* Updated November 18, 2011 for the week ended November 11, 2011 *

USA Weekly Leading Index

Overview The USA Economic Weekly Leading Index (WLI) dipped -0.5 to a 3-week low of 121.8 (preliminary) for the week ended November 11, 2011. This reading continues above the 116-week low of 120.0 for the week ending October 7, the lowest reading since the WLI was 118.8 for the week ended July 17, 2009. The previous intermediate-term lows had been 120.3 for the weeks ended July 9, 2010 and July 24, 2009. The WLI has increased 4 of the past 5 weeks, but has decreased 10 of the past 15 weeks.

Trend The short-term trend continues upwards. The intermediate-term and long-term trends continue downwards.

Cycle History The current 121.8 (preliminary) for the week ended November 11, 2011 is above the recent 116-week low of 120.0 for the week ended October 7, 2011. The short-term peak was 131.8 for the week ended April 15, 2011. The Weekly Leading Index reached a Post-Great Recession peak of 134.9 for the week ended April 30, 2010. A Great Recession low of 105.4 was set for the week ended March 6, 2009.

Weekly Leading Index (Chart) Below is a chart of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index, including the post-recession peak of 134.9 for the week ended April 30, 2010, the prior intermediate-term low of 120.3 for the week ended July 9, 2010, and the 116-week low of 120.0 for the week ended October 7, 2011, through the latest week reported.

USA Annualized Growth Rate

Overview The WLI Annualized Growth Rate (AGR) increased +0.6% to -7.9% (preliminary) for the week ended November 4, 2011 to a 7-week high. This reading is above the 63-week low of -10.1% for the weeks ending October 14 and 21. That was the lowest reading since the AGR was -10.5% for the week ended July 30, 2010. The AGR has increased or been flat the past 4 weeks, but has been negative the past 13 weeks.

Trend The short-term trend has reversed to upwards. The intermediate-term trend continues downwards and negative. The long-term trend continues downwards.

Cycle History The recent short-term peak was +8.0% for the week ended April 15, 2011. The recent short-term low was -10.1% for the weeks ended October 14 and 21, 2011. The Annualized Growth Rate reached a Post-Great Recession peak of +27.8% for the week ended October 9, 2009. A Great Recession low of -29.8% was set for the week ended December 5, 2008.

Annualized Growth Rate (Chart) Below is a chart of ECRI WLI Annualized Growth Rate, including the post-recession low of -10.9% for the week ended July 23, 2010 and the recent low of -10.1% for the weeks ended October 14 and 21, 2011, through the latest week reported. The AGR became negative in early June 2010 and remained negative for 28 consecutive weeks. The AGR was then positive for 35 weeks (from the week ended December 17, 2010 through the week ended August 12, 2011). The AGR then reversed to negative beginning the week ended August 19, 2011.

Commentary According to Lakshman Achuthan's interpretation of his indicators, a USA Recession is coming (see video below). Overall, both the Weekly Leading Index (WLI) and the Annualized Growth Rate (AGR) dropped beyond 1-year lows, but have rebounded. The WLI has been below the now distant benchmark 130.0 level for 27 consecutive weeks and the AGR has been below the 0.00% benchmark for 13 consecutive weeks. The Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate continue at levels that indicate any future economic growth is questionable. The levels are worrisome, but the recent trend has been upwards. Per the ECRI, the Weekly Leading Index projects forward approximately 6 months and the Annualized Growth Rate is relative to the WLI and a 4-week moving average.

Recession Call Intact Steve Leisman of CNBC notes Goldman Sachs, et. al. have upped their USA GDP forecasts, but Chief Operations Officer of ECRI, Lakshman Achuthan, says an American Recession is ahead. "The business cycle has to be dealt with, no matter which way you are looking. The USA is slipping into a recession and nothing has transpired that changes our view. This is what we do, we forecast recessions. Nothing in the interim (since September) has changed our view. It's the contagion among the forward-looking indicators that we have had since September. That has not changed. The divergences between the consensus view and our view are most often resolved by the consensus view coming around to our view." Why does ECRI disagree with the Street consensus? Achuthan says the Street has "physics envy" and are looking at economic models which include coincident indicators. Meanwhile, the "contagion in the forward-looking indicators show a "pervasive decline". Regarding the stock market, "the market is looking at coincident and at best short-term leading indicators. The market is really good at 'now-casting'". Further, "now-casting is not how you forecast a recession. You have to look at forward-looking indicators, not GDP which is in your rear-view mirror." Lakshman Achuthan previously has stated this will not be a double-dip recession, but a discrete event, a discrete recession and it is too early to tell whether this recession will be shallow or deep.

U.S. Recession Ahead In a previous video, September 30, 2011, Lakshman Achuthan made the initial call for a recession. Achuthan later posted an April 2008 video when he made the call for the Great Recession. Co-Founder and Chief Operations Officer of ECRI, Lakshman Achuthan, says an American Recession is ahead. "Contagion in the forward-looking indicators" is the reason for Achuthan's recession announcement and "why it is now inescapable". Further, "it is wildfire in the leading indexes" and this includes at least a dozen indicators. "When you have that kind of contagion, it is going to be pronounced, pervasive, and persistent and you are going to have a vicious cycle down that you cannot escape". He also states this is not a double-dip recession, but a discrete event, a discrete recession. The recovery since the Great Recession has been "underwhelming". Achuthan says it is too early to tell whether this recession will be shallow or deep. Video can be seen here.

Flashback: Squaring Higher Stocks With Recession Flashback to an April 2008 interview discussing how ECRI's recession call remained intact despite a rise in stock prices and other data. Video can be seen here.

About Lakshman Achuthan Co-Founder and Chief Operations Officer of ECRI, Achuthan is the managing editor of ECRI's forecasting publications. He is also a member of Time magazine's board of economists and the Levy Institute's Board of Governors, and serves as a trustee on the boards of several foundations. He received an undergraduate degree from Fairleigh Dickenson University in 1989 and a graduate degree from Long Island University in 1991. Achuthan joined Geoffrey H. Moore at Columbia University's Center for International Business Cycle Research in 1991. In 2004, he co-authored Beating the Business Cycle: How to Predict and Profit from Turning Points in the Economy.

More Charts and Analysis!

● Boom Doom Economy

USA and Global Economic News and Analysis

● Apple Digest

Apple (AAPL) financial performance and stock charts

● Google Investor

Google (GOOG) financial performance and stock charts

● Osprey Flyer

Largest USA tech companies
Microsoft (MSFT) financial performance charts

Intel (INTC) financial performance charts

VMware (VMW) financial performance charts

SalesForce.com (CRM) financial performance charts

Rackspace (RAX) financial performance charts

Cisco (CSCO) financial performance charts

Oracle (ORCL) financial performance charts
HP (HPQ) financial performance charts
IBM (IBM) financial performance charts

● Financial Controls

USA failed and problem banks

Largest USA banks

Federal Reserve statistical releases
FDIC quarterly banking profile

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) financial performance charts

Citigroup (C) financial performance charts

Goldman Sachs (GS) financial performance charts

Wells Fargo (WFC) financial performance charts

Bank of America (BAC) financial performance charts

Morgan Stanley (MS) financial performance charts

● Matrix Markets

S&P 500 (SPX) charts and review

● Baidu Planet

China economic, Internet, and technology news

Baidu (BIDU) financial performance and stock charts

● Neo Solomon

Select news regarding the Universe, Earth, Humanity, Future

Visit Osprey Port News Network!

Apple, Google, Baidu, China, technology, financial system, stocks, markets, economy, science, environment, future

Follow Boom Doom Economy (@BoomDoomEconomy) on Twitter!

USA and Global Economic News and Analysis

♦♦♦

USA Weekly Unemployment Claims at 32-Week Low! (Charts) 4-week average dips below 400K

2011-11-17T05:46:00.001-08:00

♦♦♦

United States Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

* Updated November 17, 2011 for the week ended November 12, 2011 Claims *

Current Claims The current weekly unemployment claims of 388,000 (preliminary) establishes the trend below 400,000 and is a 32-week low. However, claims have been at or above 400,000 for 28 of the past 32 weeks. The prior week claims were revised upwards from 390,000 to 393,000. So the current claims may be revised upwards next week, probably to 390,000+. Claims have been at or below 400,000 for 3 consecutive weeks.

Trend The short-term trend (4-week moving average) of 396,750 (preliminary) is the first time below 400,000 since the week ended April 16, 2011. The 4-week moving average has decreased 7 of the past 8 weeks and is at a 31-week low. The intermediate-term trend (26-week moving average) is now level, from decreasing. The long-term trend (52-week moving average) continues decreasing, reaching a new Post-Great Recession low each week. The 2011 average weekly claims of 412,674 year-to-date are lower than 2010 average weekly claims of 457,481. The 2009 average weekly claims were 571,981 and the 2008 average weekly claims were 418,596.

Cycle History USA weekly unemployment claims reached a Great Recession cyclical peak of 651,000 for the week ended March 28, 2009. A Post-Great Recession cyclical low of 371,000 was set for the week ended February 26, 2011.

USA Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims: 4-Week Moving Average (Chart) The chart below shows the 4-week moving average through the latest week reported. The 4-week moving average is considered a better, smoother measure of short-term trend. The Post-Great Recession cyclical low has been 388,500 for the week ended March 12, 2011. The recent peak has been 440,250 for the week ended May 14, 2011.

USA Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims (Chart) The chart below shows the total weekly unemployment claims through the latest week reported. The Post-Recession cyclical low has been 371,000 for the week ended February 26, 2011. The recent peak has been 478,000 for the week ended April 30, 2011.

Commentary The current weekly unemployment claims of 388,000 (preliminary) establishes the trend at or below 400,000 and is a 32-week low, which is encouraging. The prior week claims were revised upwards from 390,000 to 393,000. Claims above 400,000 have been persistent since the week ending April 9, 2011. A continuation of the trend below 400,000 could decrease the current USA unemployment rate of 9.0%. The short-term trend (4-week moving average) of 396,750 (preliminary) is a milestone, dropping below the 400,000 level, is a 31-week low, and has decreased 7 of the past 8 weeks.

History Weekly unemployment claims first reached 500,000 in the Great Recession cycle at 508,000 for the week ended November 15, 2008. Weekly claims continued above 500,000 until the week ended November 21, 2009 at 477,000. Weekly claims have been below 500,000 since the week ended November 21, 2009 with only one exception (504,000 for the week ended August 14, 2010). Claims over 500,000 clearly indicate GDP growth is slowing, if not stalling or contracting, while claims less than 400,000 indicate at least a modest economic expansion is underway.

Official Statement by the U.S. Department of Labor (Seasonally Adjusted Data) In the week ending November 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 388,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 393,000. The 4-week moving average was 396,750, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised average of 400,750. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.9 percent for the week ending November 5, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending November 5 was 3,608,000, a decrease of 57,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,665,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,670,000, a decrease of 32,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,702,750.

More Charts and Analysis!

● Boom Doom Economy