Friday, June 29, 2012

USA Weekly Leading Index Near 2012 Low, Annualized Growth Rate at 19-Week Low

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate

Weekly Leading Index


Annualized Growth Rate


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Thursday, June 28, 2012

USA Weekly Unemployment Claims Continue Above 385K

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U.S. Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

In the week ending June 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 386,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 392,000. The 4-week moving average was 386,750, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's revised average of 387,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.6 percent for the week ending June 16, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 16 was 3,296,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,311,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,306,000, an increase of 9,250 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,296,750.

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week(Seasonally Adjusted)


Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Not Seasonally Adjusted)


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Sunday, June 24, 2012

USA Weekly Leading Index at 2012 Low, Annualized Growth Rate at 17-Week Low

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate

Weekly Leading Index


Annualized Growth Rate


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Thursday, June 21, 2012

USA Weekly Unemployment Claims Continue Above 380K

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U.S. Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

In the week ending June 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 387,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 389,000. The 4-week moving average was 386,250, an increase of 3,500 from the previous week's revised average of 382,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.6 percent for the week ending June 9, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 9 was 3,299,000, unchanged from the preceding week's revised level. The 4-week moving average was 3,293,750, an increase of 5,250 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,288,500.

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week(Seasonally Adjusted)


Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Week (Not Seasonally Adjusted)


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Saturday, June 16, 2012

USA Sovereign Debt Exceeds GDP: The American Dream Gone Wild



The USA public debt continues greater than the annual GDP. That is, the debt ratio has exceeded 100%. Egan-Jones warned about this in their downgrade of United States sovereign debt to AA. This is disturbing plus foolhardy as Americans enjoy the free ride while they can. Your share of the United States public debt is $50,100 and add another $1,320 for your share of this year's interest expense if we prefer not to roll the interest into the debt.

The two-party corporate political system kicks this debt bomb down the road with the blessings of their constituency. This is because a majority of Americans have bought into the fallacy that the government works for them and should be in charge of their lives in the name of the public good, safety, health, protection against the latest terrorists, and/or (insert your rationale here).

Of course, the government is actually for the benefit of the lobbyists, maximizing their profits, and keeping you under control. But just enough morsels are tossed out to the masses so they buy into the fiction: "Government is the great fiction, through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else" (Frederic Bastiat). The problem is this fiction cannot sustain itself and ultimately a Day of Reckoning cometh for the USA. The morsels will stop at that Day for American citizens. The government domestic security infrastructure and matrix that is being built up will sure come in handy to keep you subdued, obedient, and compliant.



This fiscal lunacy doesn't stop the federal spending on wars & military budgets, Homeland Security, TSA, NSA, CIA, & police state infrastructure, federal employee & military pensions & benefits, corporate welfare & subsidies, individual tax breaks & credits, social benefits & care, and all the other free stuff and handouts every last American wants. A significant portion of this spending has to be funded by borrowing (30%+ of every dollar spent) and this keeps the fiction alive that you live in the Land of the Free. The major media, the corporate advertising delivery system, will continue to affirm this make-believe world for you and will act just as surprised as you when the Day of Reckoning arrives.



Bash poor old Chairman Ben Bernanke and the Bankster-controlled Federal Reserve all you want, but he's got to keep those interest rates crammed down in a zero-interest rate environment and print money just as fast as he can to keep America afloat. He doesn't get one bit of assistance from the President or Congress to stop this madness as they dance to the  tune of the lobbyists. If he doesn't perpetuate this Ponzi scheme, the entire American Dream would blow up.

The interest expense on the USA's ever-increasing debt could skyrocket easily to $1 trillion annually if the interest rates got  loose from Bernanke! Not only that, some of the Too Big To Fail banks might actually become insolvent from interest rate shock and counter party panic. The entire frigging financial system might meltdown! It's hard out here for the Wall Street Banksters! Ask JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon and his accomplices about that!



Charts consist of the latest data available from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (GDP at 3-31-12), U.S. Treasury (Public Debt at 5-29-12), and U.S. Census Bureau (Population at 5-31-12):
Public Debt $15.71 trillion
GDP $15.45 trillion 
Population 313.65 million
Annualized Interest Expense $413.96 billion
Effective Interest Rate 2.80%

USA Sovereign Debt Now Exceeds GDP: Greetings From Big Brother

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Friday, June 15, 2012

USA Industrial Production Dips in May

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Federal Reserve Statistical Release: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

USA Monthly Industrial Production


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USA Weekly Leading Index Flat, Annualized Growth Rate Continues Negative

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate

Weekly Leading Index


Annualized Growth Rate


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USA Weekly Unemployment Claims Continue Above 380K

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U.S. Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

In the week ending June 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 386,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 380,000. The 4-week moving average was 382,000, an increase of 3,500 from the previous week's revised average of 378,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.6 percent for the week ending June 2, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 2 was 3,278,000, a decrease of 33,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,311,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,281,500, a decrease of 2,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,284,000.

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Month (Seasonally Adjusted)


Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Month (Not Seasonally Adjusted)


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Wednesday, June 13, 2012

USA First Quarter GDP a Lower, Disappointing +1.9%


Bureau of Economic Analysis: Gross Domestic Product

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the second estimate of Q1 2012 GDP which was +1.9% quarter over quarter, a drop from the advance estimate of +2.2% and from the prior Q4 2011 of +3.0%. The total GDP was an all-time high $15.45 trillion annualized. The GDP has increased quarter over quarter for 11 consecutive quarters, since Q3 2009. Growth rates have ranged from a near-abysmal +0.4% in Q1 2011 to a robust +3.9% in Q1 2010.

The Big Question: Where is the USA economy headed? A recession in 2012 does not appear probable (yet), but continues as a low risk. Three scenarios are usually discussed: (1) a double dip recession whereby the GDP will turn negative yet again with a higher unemployment rate, (2) the economy will continue "bottom bouncing" with slow to very slow growth and a continuing relatively high unemployment rate, or (3) the bottom is in and GDP growth will accelerate and full employment and is on the horizon.

Scenario (2) with slow to very slow economic growth and a continuing relatively high unemployment rate appears to be the most likely scenario for 2012, with an annual GDP growth projected of approximately +2.0% or a little more. The average of the most recent 4 quarters reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis is +2.00% (+1.3%, +1.8%, +3.0%, +1.9%).

There is a more important chapter developing in the Story of America. The annualized GDP is $15+ trillion and the funded national debt has also exceeded $15 trillion. Yes, the USA debt has reached and passed the threshold of a national debt that exceeds GDP as the federal budget deficits continue uncontrolled. The sovereign debt to GDP  ratio has now exceeded 100%.

In the minds of many Americans, the 100% benchmark is usually surpassed by wild-eyed socialist countries and absurd dictators as these misguided nations implode into chaos and poverty. A review of this American milestone was reviewed earlier here: USA Sovereign Debt Now Exceeds GDP: Greetings From Big Brother. Later today, I'll again update the data and explore the upcoming American Day of Reckoning, the result of the fiscal and monetary excesses in our American Dream Gone Wild.



Friday, June 8, 2012

USA Weekly Leading Index at 21-Week Low, Annualized Growth Rate Negative

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ECRI Weekly Leading Index and Annualized Growth Rate

Weekly Leading Index


Annualized Growth Rate


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Thursday, June 7, 2012

USA Weekly Unemployment Claims Dip to 377K

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U.S. Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

In the week ending June 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 377,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 389,000. The 4-week moving average was 377,750, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week's revised average of 376,000.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.6 percent for the week ending May 26, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 26 was 3,293,000, an increase of 34,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,259,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,279,500, an increase of 11,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,268,000.

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Month


Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims by Year


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Tuesday, June 5, 2012

Global Services Sector Growth Increases

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JPMorgan and Markit Global Indexes

Global Services PMI


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USA Services Sector Growth Slightly Increases

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ISM: Monthly USA NMI

USA Services Sector: Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI)


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Sunday, June 3, 2012

OECD Global Economic Outlook: Gaining momentum, but major risks threaten recovery



OECD Economic Outlook (May 22, 2011)

The global economy is gradually gaining momentum, but the recovery is fragile, extremely uneven across different regions and could be derailed by the crisis in the euro area, according to the OECD’s latest Economic Outlook. "With slow growth, high unemployment and limited room for manoeuvre regarding macroeconomic policy space, structural reforms are the short-run remedy to spur growth and boost confidence”, OECD Secretary-General Angel GurrĂ­a said during the launch of the report in Paris.

GDP growth across the OECD is projected to slow from an annual rate of 1.8% in 2011 to 1.6% in 2012, before recovering to 2.2% in 2013, according to the Outlook. Private sector demand is expected to push activity up in the United States by 2.4% this year and by a further 2.6% in 2013. In Japan, GDP is expected to expand by 2% in 2012 and 1.5% in 2013. Euro area GDP is forecast to contract by 0.1% this year, before picking up to 0.9% in 2013.

“The crisis in the euro zone remains the single biggest downside risk facing the global outlook,” said OECD Chief Economist Pier Carlo Padoan. In Europe, business and household confidence is weak, financial markets are tight and the adverse impacts of fiscal consolidation on near-term growth may be significant, particularly in countries hardest hit by the euro crisis, the OECD said. Recovery in the healthier economies, while welcome, is not strong enough to offset flat or negative growth elsewhere in Europe. Weak competitiveness must be addressed in those countries with large external deficits, while structural adjustment and higher wages in surplus countries would contribute to a growth-friendly rebalancing process, the OECD said.

Adjustments in the euro area are now taking place in an environment of slow or negative growth and deleveraging, prompting risks of a vicious circle involving high and rising sovereign indebtedness, weak banking systems, excessive fiscal consolidation and lower growth.










The Global Economy Is Gaining Momentum, But Major Risks Threaten Recovery (May 22, 2012) The global economy is gradually picking up speed, but the recovery is extremely uneven across different regions and could be derailed by the crisis in the euro area, according to the OECD's latest Economic Outlook. For more info visit: www.oecd.org/oecdeconomicoutlook



About The OECD The 34 OECD member countries are: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chili, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States, plus the Euro Area and European Union. Accession countries are now are just the Russian Federation. Enhanced Engagement Economies are Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, and South Africa.

USA Consumer Spending Increases

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Bureau of Economic Analysis: Personal Outlays

USA Personal Consumption Expenditures (Consumer Spending)



USA Durable Goods Purchases



USA NonDurable Goods Purchases



USA Services Purchases



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USA Personal and Disposable Income Increases

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Bureau of Economic Analysis: Personal Income

USA Personal and Disposable Income



USA Compensation of Employees



USA Wages and Salaries



USA Private Industries Wages and Salaries



USA Government Salaries and Wages



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