Friday, April 27, 2012
ISM: Monthly USA PMI & NMI
USA Economy USA manufacturing growth increased for the 32nd consecutive month. USA non-manufacturing (services) growth dipped to a 3-month low but reported the 27th consecutive month of expansion. Both the USA manufacturing and services sectors have significantly strengthened and continue growing. The overall USA economy continued to expand for the 34th consecutive month (PMI greater than 42.6).
ISM Monthly Manufacturing Index (PMI) The March 2012 PMI increased +1.0 to 53.4, the 4th increase in the past 5 months. The PMI reached a first post-recession peak in March 2010 at 59.3 and a higher peak in January 2011 at 59.9. The Great Recession low was 33.1 in December 2008. The post-recession low has been 49.2 in July 2009. A reading greater than 50 indicates expansion.
ISM Monthly Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI) The March 2012 NMI decreased -1.3 to 56.0, the first decrease in the past 6 months. The NMI reached a post-recession peak of 59.0 in February 2011. The Great Recession low was 37.6 in November 2008. The post-recession low has been 46.9 in July 2009. A reading greater than 50 indicates expansion.
Saturday, April 21, 2012
JPMorgan & Markit Global Indexes
Global Economy Manufacturing growth was flat and services sector growth dropped in March 2012, but global economic growth continues. The U.S. continues as the primary driver of world growth, weighted with a 28.1% share of global GDP. In fact, "The expansion is, however, still heavily dependent on the strong performance of the US economy." The Global All-Industry Output Index has been greater than 50, indicating the global economy is expanding, since August 2009, for 32 consecutive months. An index reading greater than 50 indicates expansion.
JPMorgan Global All-Industry Output Index The current reading of 54.6 (-0.8) indicates expansion at a slower rate and below February's 12-month high. That was the highest since the Index peaked at 59.1 in February 2011, which was a post-recession high. The post-recession low was 51.3 in October 2011. Historical back data has been revised, only the latest 4 months of revisions are reflected on chart. The general trend is not affected by the revisions.
JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI The current reading of 51.1 (-0.1) indicates expansion at a slightly slower rate. The PMI recent peak was 57.4 in February 2011. The post-recession high has been 57.7 in April 2010. The post-recession low was 49.7 in November 2011. Historical back data has been revised, only the latest 4 months of revisions are reflected on chart. The general trend is not affected by the revisions.
JPMorgan Global Services PMI The current reading of 55.2 (-1.1) indicates expansion at a slower rate. The Index peaked at 59.2 in February 2011, which was a post-recession high. The post-recession low was 50.3 in November 2009. Historical back data has been revised, only the latest 4 months of revisions are reflected on chart. The general trend is not affected by the revisions.
Tuesday, April 10, 2012
Bureau of Economic Analysis: Gross Domestic Product
USA GDP 2011 The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the third (final) estimate of 2011 GDP which was +1.7% YoY. The total GDP was $15.094 trillion, from the advance estimate $15.09 trillion. This is a drop from the 2010 GDP of +3.0% YoY. The Great Recession GDPs were -0.3% and -3.5% in 2008 and 2009, respectively.
Where is the USA Economy Going? The Big Question: where is the USA economy headed? Three scenarios are usually discussed: 1) a double dip recession whereby the GDP will turn negative yet again with a higher unemployment rate, 2) the economy will continue "bottom bouncing" with slow to very slow growth and a continuing relatively high unemployment rate, or 3) the bottom is in and GDP growth will accelerate and the unemployment rate will begin to decrease. Scenario 2) with slow to very slow economic growth and a continuing relatively high unemployment rate appears to be the most likely scenario for 2012. The World Bank estimates the USA 2012 GDP at +2.2%. The OECD estimate is +2.0%, the IMF is +1.8%, and The Conference Board is +1.8%.
USA Real GDP % by Year (seasonally adjusted at annual rate) The peak before the Great Recession was +3.5% in 2004. A downward trend began in 2005 bottoming at -3.5% in 2009. The recovery has been +3.0% in 2010 and +1.7% in 2011.
USA Real GDP $ by Year (seasonally adjusted at annual rate) The pre-recession peak was $14.292 trillion in 2008, followed by a Great Recession drop in 2009 to $13.939 trillion. The recovery has been $14.527 trillion in 2010 and $15.09 trillion in 2011, an all-time high.